Are we currently in a stock market bubble? In the 2026 Outlook from Capital Stewards, Brian Seay explores the "K-shaped" dichotomy of the current economy: a booming AI sector contrasted with a cooling labor market and stagnating "Main Street" growth.

We break down the data on inflation, the impact of 2025 tariffs, and whether the Fed's expected rate cuts will be enough to spur a rebound. Whether you are a Huntsville tech professional or planning for retirement, this episode provides the data-driven roadmap you need for your 2026 investment strategy.

Key Topics Covered:

The 2025 Market Recap: Why Gold (+60%) and International Stocks (+30%) outpaced the U.S Stock market.

AI "Bubble Watch": Analyzing the actual cash flows of Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google.

The Labor Market: Why unemployment is rising despite low layoffs.

Inflation & Tariffs: What to expect for your Social Security COLA and real income.

Asset Allocation: Why diversification into Bonds, Real Estate, and Gold is critical in 2026.

0:00 - Introduction: The Big Questions for 2026

2:05 - 2025 Performance Review: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds

3:00 - The Power of Sticking to the Long-Term Plan

5:03 - The AI Boom vs. Main Street: The K-Shaped Economy

7:05 - Labor Market Deep Dive: Why Unemployment is Rising

13:05 - Inflation, Tariffs, and Your Social Security COLA

18:20 - Bubble Watch: Is it 1999 All Over Again?

23:14 - Global Opportunities: Emerging Markets & AI

25:03 - Gold: The Strategic Hedge for 2026

27:24 - Fixed Income: Earning the Coupon in a New Era

31:42 - Real Estate Outlook: Residential vs. Industrial

35:02 - Summary: How to Build a Resilient 2026 Portfolio

Start A Conversation with Us: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

Did Wall Street predict the 2025 market boom, or did they miss the mark?

In this episode of the Capital Stewards Podcast, we are "keeping the receipts." We look back at the forecasts made at the end of 2024 by major firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS, and PIMCO—as well as our own internal outlook—to see how they stacked up against reality.

From the "K-shaped" economy and the massive AI CapEx build-out to the surprise performance of International stocks and Gold, we break down what the experts got right and where they completely missed the boat.

In this episode, we cover:

The Economy: Why the recession didn't happen and how AI saved the GDP numbers.

The Stock Market: S&P 500 targets vs. reality (6800+), and the failure of the "broadening rally" thesis.

Bonds & Rates: Did PIMCO make the right call on fixed income?

The Big Surprise: The asset class that rallied over 50% this year.

The Lesson: Why portfolio construction matters more than crystal ball gazing.

The point of this exercise isn't to poke fun at analysts, but to demonstrate the humility required to be a successful long-term investor. If the biggest banks in the world can't predict the short term, how should you build your portfolio?

👇 Chapters:

0:00 - Intro: Keeping the Receipts

1:15 - The 2025 Economy: AI vs. The Real Economy

3:28 - Economic Forecasts (Goldman, JPM, Wells Fargo)

7:05 - The Stock Market: S&P 500 Predictions vs. Reality

9:42 - International Stocks

10:45 - The Bond Market: PIMCO, BlackRock & Rates

12:55 - Gold: The Top Performing Asset of 2025

13:55 - Why We Listen to Outlooks (Despite the Misses)

15:10 - How to Build a Portfolio Without a Crystal Ball

17:35 - Looking Ahead to 2026

🔔 Subscribe for our upcoming 2026 Outlook Episode!

Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

Are "alternative investments" like Private Equity and Venture Capital the secret to building wealth, or are they just complicated hype?

In this episode, we break down everything you actually need to know. We ditch the "alternative" label and re-categorize these investments by the job they do for your portfolio: driving growth or providing diversification.

We also debunk the biggest myth in investing: the idea that private assets have low risk. We'll show you why that "low volatility" is a statistical illusion and why assets like private equity carry just as much risk as the stock market.

Join us as we cover:

The "J-Curve": Why you lose money before you make it.

Manager Selection: The massive (and critical) difference between a top-tier manager and an average one.

The Liquidity Trap: The truth about new "liquid" interval funds.

401(k)s: Should you really hold these in your retirement plan?

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor in headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama serving clients throughout the southeast.

Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.