The first full week of 2026 delivered a rapid series of headlines, some encouraging, some concerning, and a few real head=scratchers. In this episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down a week of unpredictable news, from mixed macro signals and surprise policy proposals to the year’s first “didn’t-see-that-coming” geopolitical development in Venezuela.

With December behind us, LightBox’s Transaction Tracker and CRE Activity Index data is out. December’s CRE Activity Index dipped to 86.9, a typical seasonal slowdown and about half the usual year-end decline. Meanwhile, nine-figure CRE deal volume jumped 44% month over month, reflecting the lagged impact of elevated activity in September and October, when underwriting and diligence for year-end deals were getting underway. The takeaway: December saw a seasonal pause in activity, but deal momentum closed the year on a strong note.

The hosts also explore multifamily’s uneven recovery, the office value resets across major metros, early insights from LightBox’s AI benchmark study, and why office-to-resi conversions in New York and D.C. remain a clear sign of capital conviction.

The team also looks ahead with major forecasts leaning cautiously optimistic and January typically marking a rebound after a seasonally slower December, challenging the market to look past the noise and focus on what the numbers are signaling.

04:23 Single Family Rental Market Dynamics
11:29 New York City Housing Challenges
16:49 Economic Outlook for 2026
20:09 CRE Activity Index and Transaction Trends
23:02 AI in Environmental Due Diligence
27:10 Multifamily Market Insights
35:02 Office Market Challenges
38:02 Development Trends and Confidence

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.

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What will really drive commercial real estate in 2026? In this forward-looking episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker cut through the noise to examine the macro forces, market risks, and opportunities most likely to shape the year ahead. The conversation opens with a quick scorecard of their 2025 predictions, using fresh data on rates, lending, deal activity, and the LightBox CRE Activity Index to separate signal from hindsight.

From there, the focus turns squarely to 2026. The team weighs the bullish and bearish cases—from a more dovish Fed and faster rate cuts to labor market softening, stimulus-fueled growth, and lingering “higher-for-longer” risks on the 10-year Treasury. On the CRE side, they explore what a more intentional, execution-driven year could mean for pricing, capital deployment, and deal flow, highlighting a bifurcated market, steadier momentum in the LightBox CRE Activity Index, and why disciplined strategy may outperform speculation. The episode closes with a set of surprise predictions, including potential equity market volatility and AI’s expanding role in everyday CRE workflows.

00:23 Grading 2025: Interest Rates, Lending, and Deal Activity
04:15 Volatility, Treasuries, and the LightBox CRE Activity Index
07:35 Turning the Page: Why 2026 Is Harder to Predict
09:10 The Bull Case for 2026
14:55 The Bear Case: Labor, Deficits, and Market Fragility
22:05 CRE in 2026: Capital, Pricing, and a Bifurcated Market
31:00 Surprise Predictions: Markets, AI, and What Comes Next

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.

www.lightboxre.com

It may be the season for a Santa Claus rally, but this week felt more Grinch than gift: a soft jobs report, 10-year Treasuries stuck above 4%, retail sales hinting at a more cautious consumer, and markets wobbling as investors rethink the AI trade. Manus and Dianne zoom out on the year that was: tariffs that didn’t trigger the hyperinflation many feared, rate cuts that arrived later and smaller than almost anyone predicted, and sentiment that swung quickly from optimism to anxiety in a series of “lane-departure warnings” rather than a clean soft landing. They unpack how Fed policy, shutdown-driven data distortions, equity market froth, and renewed securities buying are shaping the macro backdrop heading into 2026.

On the CRE side, despite the bumpy ‘’market ride, the LightBox CRE Activity Index stayed in triple digits for 9 of the past 11 months, signaling a market that cooled and adjusted but never froze. Surprises included an office sector that didn’t collapse as the doomsayers predicted and even set leasing records in metros like New York and San Francisco, a multifamily recovery that’s taking longer to work through, and a data center land rush that turned once-ordinary parcels into $6 million-per-acre headlines.

The episode closes on a human note, with Manus, Dianne, and first-time host Molly sharing their standout moments of 2025—from weddings and college milestones to first apartments and new roles.

Don’t miss this clear-eyed debrief on what 2025 got right, what it got wrong, and what this bumpy year means for CRE heading into 2026.

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.

Time Stamps
00:00 Introduction and Technical Setup
01:01 Market Overview and Economic Indicators
03:02 Macro Environment Surprises of 2025
08:29 Commercial Real Estate Insights
17:39 Reflections on Personal Highlights of 2025

www.lightboxre.com