No one enjoys being wrong. But I do enjoy having been wrong. This means I am now less wrong, now than I was before. This means I have learned something.

--

Chase sits down with book in hand to discuss some of the great insights in Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life by Vitaliy Katsenelson. Consider this your audio CliffsNotes with anecdotes from the author and from Chase’s experiences with stoicism, challenging your own market theses, and why we should treat everything in our life as if it’s on borrowed time.

Timestamps:

(00:01) – Intro

(01:44) – Put curiosity above conviction and humility above pride

(03:47) – No one enjoys being wrong, but…do enjoy having been wrong

(05:58) – The rules of an intellectually honest debate

(07:56) – Acknowledge our assumptions, acknowledge our own biases. Address the argument, don’t attack the person

(10:56) – Pain is a perfect tuner

(14:16) – Time discovers truth

(15:55) – Accept that our control only lies within

(21:45) – Negative visualization helps you realize all the great things in your life are borrowed, not owned

(24:00) – Outro

Referenced in the Show:

• Soul in the Game by Vitaliy Katsenelson
• Think Again by Adam Grant
• Chase’s favorite Daniel Kahneman book: Thinking, Fast and Slow
• Brothers Karamazov: by Fyodor Dostoevsky
• The Intelligent Investor: Ben Graham
• Stoic Books: The Wisdom of the Stoics Boxed Set & Discipline Is Destiny: The Power
• of Self-Control

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

"You have to, create your own library of Alexandria. And the great thing is you can do it topic by topic. Someone sends you a book recommendation? Great. Buy it on Kindle, stick it in the Notebook [LM], right? You'll get there eventually, but it's part of your searchable database from today because, I've taken it on recommendation from someone I trust."

-Rupert Mitchell, Blind Squirrel Macro

--

This week, Chase interviews his brain doppelgänger and good friend, Rupert Mitchell, of Blind Squirrel Macro. Rupert began his finance career on the sell side of Investment Banking (pick one, he worked there) and also ran the equity syndicate desk in Hong Kong. Rupert began Blind Squirrel Macro as a way to connect with people about investing. His apt tag line is “Macro for Civilians” and this conversation stays on brand. Enjoy all of Rupert’s thoughts on space, his thankfulness for the power of a targeted ETF, and most importantly, how to approach A.I. agnostically. We must have Rupert back, because we barely scratched the surface in this episode!

--

Timestamps:

(00:01) – Intro

(04:03) – Why Rupert loves the market

(06:52) – How Rupert structures his trade ideas

(12:19) – ETF providers need some love

(14:37) – Early wins can be dangerous

(16:46) – Living in Australia gives you an edge

(23:40) – Will there ever be a Bloomberg [terminal] killer?

(26:53) – Oil

(29:56) – Rupert is the new champion for the old book question

(35:10) – A.I. can’t strip us of beautifully written words

(37:37) – It’s inevitable that you get trades right for the wrong reasons

(40:08) – Be Agnostic about A.I.

(46:17) – How Rupert collects dots

(55:42) – Plugs

--

This Episode's Charity:

This week’s episode features causes close to Rupert’s heart: Guide Dogs Australia & Search and Rescue Dogs of Australia. Unfortunately, Rupert didn’t slip once, so we couldn’t help the best of Australia’s dog professionals. But you can by checking out these great charities!

--

Referenced in the Show:

So many ETFS: Simplify’s TUA & PFIX, Range’s NUKZ & LNGZ, Cathie Wood’s Space ETF, & Procure’s UFO

AI Tools for an informational edge: Harkster, NotebookLM, & FinChat

Other great Podcasts/Radio: Commodity Context & Desert Island Discs

Books: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Dostoyevsky's The Gambler, Annie Duke’s

“So, geopolitics really is more about defining possibilities and getting ready for any possibility so that if the crazy thing happens, ah, I've thought about it before. And I know what I'm going to do when that happens, rather than I'm going to perfectly be able to identify the scenario.” - Jacob Shapiro, Cognitive Investments

--

This week’s episode features a future regular guest of Taylor Made Macro, Jacob Shapiro, from Cognitive Investments. Jacob is a true neutral geopolitical analyst that approaches the world and the markets with humility and back-breaking labor to arrive at his conclusions. Chase and Jacob discuss current events in global elections, the importance of finding original news sources, paying attention to news that seems strange, and implementing a ranking system for the avalanche of information one needs to get through to do this work each day. This helps you with the most important takeaway of the episode: scenario planning. Thinking about what could happen helps you prepare if it does happen.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(01:38) – Charity: William and Anne Monroe Shapiro Endowment

(02:16) – Mexican Elections: Shienbaum is a Scientist

(08:13) – Modi’s Age and Charisma Have Their Limits

(11:29) – South Africa’s Apartheid History Overshadows the Geopolitical Potential

(14:39) – Individual Leaders Can Have a Great Amount of Agency in the Right Moment, with the Right Circumstances

(17:54) – Milei’s Economic Changes Could be Trading Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Meaningful Change

(25:23) – Mexican, Brazilian, and Saudi Arabian ETFs Are (as of recording) Mispriced.

(27:16) – Between Two Pines

(32:43) – Scenario Imagination and Admitting You’re Wrong are too Important When Money is on the Line

(36:32) – Google Translate Your Way to More Accurate, Ground-level News, and Dissect the Piece of Info that Seems Strange

(44:04) – Spanx vs. High Nutritional Reading

(46:07) – Jacob’s Books: All the King's Men by Robert Penn Warren & Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer [Jr.]

(47:14) – Notion Helps Organize Information

(51:44) – Finding the Original is the Most Important Task

(53:37) – High Level Meeting Summaries: Pay Attention to Divergence

(56:10) – Don’t Put on a Trade Unless You Can Get to Confidence

(58:40) – Geopolitical Analysis is not a Hard Science

(1:02:14) – Swim to Connect Dots

(1:03:10) – Half-Holocaust Survivors / Half D.C. Socialites – Bridging the Various Classes Perspectives for Better Political Analysis

(1:06:36) - Plugs

--

This Episode's Charity:

In honor of Jacob’s parents, an endowment for First Generation American citizens has been established at Oxford College of Emory University. Please donate here.

Jacob and Chase raised $20 for charity this week!

--

Referenced in the Show:

Cognitive Dissidents (Soon The Jacob Shapiro Podcast): Depreciable Line of Information

Movie: