Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress
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https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8938/solar-power-current-challenges-encouraging-progress/
The world is hugely reliant on fossil fuels. Despite impressive progress in the development of renewable energy, still about 85% of the world's energy comes from oil, gas, and coal.
The progress in recent years has meant that the worst-case climate outcomes are now unlikely. But we are still on course for around 3°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to climate models, unless our direction changes further.
Climate policy has a huge part to play in improving that situation, and agreements made at COP26 and other international forums can alter our course. But much of the most important change has been down to improvements in technology.
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