This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Daniel Byman, and Ari Tabatabai for an in-depth discussion of the U.S. military operations against Iran, including:

• “Isn’t it Iran-ic.” Trump’s decision to join Israel in removing Ayatollah Khamanei reflects a deep reversal by the president, who has spent years criticizing his predecessors’ own experiences with regime change and other overseas adventurism. What drove Trump to proceed this time, after stopping short twice in the past year? What can we learn from the way the Trump administration has proceeded? And how far will Trump let things go?
• “Bibi’s Big Adventure.” Regime change in Iran is something Israel and the Arab Gulf states have advocated for frequently in the past. But they had all adopted a more cautious and even conciliatory posture toward Iran in the months before the current offensive, at least in public. How has the region approached this conflict? And what will it do moving forward?
• “MIGA.” The death of Ayatollah Khamenei is a major shift in Iran, but we don’t know where it is going to lead. One concern that people have always had about regime change in Iran is that it will be highly destabilizing, resulting in a failed state in a crucial corner of the Middle East. On the other end, other people have asserted that removing the Ayatollah and his regime will give Iran the opportunity to flourish back into a democracy, or at least something closer to a state that’s more stable and free than Iran has been for the last several decades. Between the two is a mass spectrum of possibilities. What does the future hold for Iran in the post-Ayatollah era, if that’s the era that we’re heading into?

In object lessons, Ben is vibe-coding his way through Lawfare’s litigation tracker, as well as vibing his way through The Rest is History’s four-part series, Revolution in Iran. Dan is war-gaming his way through the attack on Iran with Next War: Iran. Scott is consuming as much Iran content as he can get his hands on with (another) Scott Anderson’s “King of Kings,” Roy Mottahedeh’s “The Mantle of the Prophet,” Gary Sick’s “All Fall Down,” and Dutch documentary “The Birthday,” finally discovered online by Lawfare’s own Anna Hickey. And Ari, not to be outdone in Iran content, recommends the graphic novel “Persepolis,” but really is escaping it all with Final Fantasy VII Remake.

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This week, Scott was joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Senior Editor Molly Roberts, and University of Virginia Professor of Law Paul Stephan to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:

• “Textual Healing.” On Friday, a 6-3 Supreme Court majority brought an end to at least the current iteration of President Trump’s controversial tariff policies, ruling that language in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (or IEEPA) authorizing the “regulation of…importation” doesn’t include the authority to impose tariffs. That said, President Trump himself has already indicated that he intends to reinstate many of the tariffs he had installed using IEEPA under other statutory authorities. How big a setback is this for the Trump administration’s trade policies? And what might it mean for other aspects of its policy agenda?
• “Mayhem in Mexico.” Over the weekend, an elite unit of the Mexican army killed one of the country’s most powerful drug kingpins, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho.” His syndicate, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, immediately retaliated, through attacks on Mexican security forces, roadblocks throughout the country, and other measures intended to terrorize the public, particularly in areas frequented by American and Western tourists. The decision to move against El Mencho followed an intense pressure campaign by the Trump administration, which has pushed Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to take a hard stand against the cartels. Should this be seen as a win for the Trump administration? Or Sheinbaum? And what could the long-term implications be for the U.S.-Mexico relationship?
• “Clap if You Believe.” On Tuesday, President Trump delivered his annual State of the Union address, the longest of its kind. Many had braced for a contentious speech, expecting Trump to ridicule the justices seated in front of him and potentially even announce strikes on Iran. But Trump appeared to pull his punches on both of those fronts—he instead saved his harshest words for congressional Democrats and focused on laying out a rose-colored picture of the state of the country. How effective was Trump’s speech? And what does it tell us about the current state of his second presidency?

In object lessons, Tyler just has this strange sense that you will enjoy the Otherworld podcast. Molly (and her dog) find comfort in the soft, squishy claws of Cthulhu. Scott eased his travel woes with a twist on the Vieux Carre at Birch & Bloom in Charlottesville. And Paul mixed his object lesson with three parts: Peter Suderman’s Cocktails if you’re into all things shaken and stirred; Mark Galeotti's podcast, In Moscow’s Shadow, if you’re into all things Russia-related; and Dan Wang’s New York Times Best Seller book, “Breakneck,” if you’re into all things China-related.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.