It is Saturday, February 21, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

Today's episode identifies a mathematical error in the VJ Edgecombe props and explores why the HEAT vs. GRIZZLIES matchup is a strategic bloodbath for bettors. We utilize sharp data from Polymarket and Kalshi to analyze the most mispriced probabilities on the board, including our Dog of the Day bet involving the ROCKETS and KNICKS at Madison Square Garden. We also cover total odds for the KINGS and SPURS and Cade Cunningham’s assist floor.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is Friday, February 20th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

Today's episode focuses on identifying inefficiencies in the prediction markets as injury reports shake up the boards. We analyze the high-volume trading on Bub Carrington’s assists on Polymarket and explain why the Kalshi data suggests fading public sentiment on the Grizzlies vs. Jazz matchup. We also dive into two massive totals for the Mavericks/Timberwolves and Heat/Hawks games where the market pace adjustments are lagging behind reality.

Finally, we look at the 'Dog of the Day' in the Brooklyn vs. Oklahoma City matchup, highlighting a significant mispricing in the spread odds. Whether you are tracking movement on Polymarket or looking for value on Kalshi, this episode provides the alpha you need for today's games.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript

It is February 20, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this episode of the Ledger Recap, we dive into the systemic mismatches between the CAVALIERS and NETS, exploring why alt spreads on Kalshi and Polymarket offered significant missed alpha.

We also review critical lessons in trade management for player prop odds, focusing on mid-game adjustments for Tyrese Maxey and the impact of small-ball lineups on Alperen Sengün’s rebound contracts. Learn how our updated 'Conviction Calibration' rule aims to refine our betting execution across prediction markets.

Feedback? Email us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript