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Elsewhere, in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump stated Ukraine should elect a new leader after demanding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, while Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellites for combat operations was temporarily suspended.

In the Middle East, the Yemeni Houthi group bombed the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, and two commercial vessels were sunk in the Strait of Hormuz in two separate unattributed attacks.

In the Indo-Pacific, the European Union and China reached a trade deal concerning Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles while North Korea test-fired submarine-based cruise missiles for the first time since 2024.

In the Americas, U.S. security officials raided Democratic U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar’s home and preparing to send 300 troops to Panama for military exercises.

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In this special edition of Global Hotspots, Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, Andrew Loftesnes, and Sebastian Dittgen break down some of the key incidents that happened over this past quarter and look at some of the major trends we can expect as 2026 comes to a close.

Conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine are expected to intensify, and several other countries will trend toward destabilization as politically polarizing elections occur in Q4.

These trends are likely to cause political, social, and economic disruptions, especially to the energy sector. Technological advances may mitigate some disruptions, but all eyes will be on artificial intelligence development and deployment, as that may add instability to the international system.

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In this week's episode, Shahad Turkistani, Analyst at New Lines Institute, returns to break down the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, the trilateral pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on 7 August, which commits all three to treat an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all.

Additionally this week, Milos Maggiore and Andrew Loftesnes discuss developments in the Middle East, where Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait killed at least six people and disrupted international shipping, while Iranian officials stated that negotiations with the U.S. are at a deadlock.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted a joint naval patrol with an Indonesian warship off Taiwan’s east coast, while Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a disputed island with Japan. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that North Korea would be sending additional troops and weapons to the conflict while Putin threatened to respond in kind to recent European seizures of Russian shadow fleet vessels. In the Americas, a Canadian petition to expel U.S. ambassador Pete Hoekstra is set to be discussed in the House of Commons, while U.S. judges have found the Trump administration to be using an unlawful interpretation of the law to justify its mass detention policy.

In this week's episode Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, and Andrew Loftesnes are joined by in-house guest Sebastian Dittgen to examine growing instability in Ethiopia, as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front joins forces with other insurgent groups and raises new questions about the country’s security trajectory.

Also in this episode:

• U.S.-China: Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping extend the trade truce by two months during talks in Washington. • South Korea: Washington highlights new investments tied to last year’s trade agreement. • Transatlantic security: The U.S., Denmark, and Greenland sign a revised security treaty. • Russia-Ukraine war: Ukrainian forces launch more than 1,000 missiles and drones toward the Moscow region. • Middle East: Iraq orders the cancellation of flights from Iran amid U.S. sanctions pressure, while Israeli forces kill Hamas’ finance chief in Gaza. • United States: A judge reverses a White House ban affecting several news outlets. • Venezuela: Interim President Delcy Rodriguez says elections will be held, but gives no timeline.

Listen to this week’s Global Hotspots for analysis of the geopolitical developments shaping the week.

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In this week’s episode, Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, and Andrew Loftesnes examine the European Union’s invitation for Canada to become an “associate member,” what closer Canada–EU ties could mean for both sides, and the early reactions to the proposal.

Elsewhere in this week’s Global Hotspots, the team analyzes major geopolitical developments across the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time in three years.
• Saudi Arabia carries out more than 400 strikes against Yemen’s Houthis, while Houthi forces capture two Red Sea islands amid growing civilian displacement.
• The U.S. Congress approves new sanctions against Russia, as Poland halts air traffic following alerts over Russian drones in its airspace.
• President Donald Trump responds to reports of Chinese intelligence support for Iran.
• North Korea reiterates plans to expand its nuclear arsenal.

What do these developments mean for the geopolitical outlook, and what should policymakers and businesses watch next?

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This week, the U.S. and Canada announced 50% tariffs on each other’s imports following a breakdown in trade talks, while the U.S. Supreme Court dismissed a lawsuit challenging the creation of a federal list of voters, granting the federal government the ability to invalidate votes it deems ineligible.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow to warn Russia against escalation against NATO, while in Kyiv, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged continued support for Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. is preparing to impose additional tariffs on China linked to industrial overcapacity, while the U.S. Department of Justice disrupted Chinese network hacking operations against U.S. governmental agencies.

In the Middle East, the U.S. Treasury imposed a series of sanctions against multiple entities for their trade involvement with Iran, while Iran and Oman agreed on a joint facilitation framework for safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

Featuring: Eugene Chausovsky, Andrew Loftesnes, and Jared Jeter.