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In this special edition of Global Hotspots, Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, Andrew Loftesnes, and Sebastian Dittgen break down some of the key incidents that happened over this past quarter and look at some of the major trends we can expect as 2026 comes to a close.

Conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine are expected to intensify, and several other countries will trend toward destabilization as politically polarizing elections occur in Q4.

These trends are likely to cause political, social, and economic disruptions, especially to the energy sector. Technological advances may mitigate some disruptions, but all eyes will be on artificial intelligence development and deployment, as that may add instability to the international system.

- Explore the Global Forecast Monitor here.

- Register for a 28-day free trial of the Geopolitical Forecasting Platform here.

In this week's episode, Shahad Turkistani, Analyst at New Lines Institute, returns to break down the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, the trilateral pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on 7 August, which commits all three to treat an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all.

Additionally this week, Milos Maggiore and Andrew Loftesnes discuss developments in the Middle East, where Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait killed at least six people and disrupted international shipping, while Iranian officials stated that negotiations with the U.S. are at a deadlock.

In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted a joint naval patrol with an Indonesian warship off Taiwan’s east coast, while Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a disputed island with Japan. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that North Korea would be sending additional troops and weapons to the conflict while Putin threatened to respond in kind to recent European seizures of Russian shadow fleet vessels. In the Americas, a Canadian petition to expel U.S. ambassador Pete Hoekstra is set to be discussed in the House of Commons, while U.S. judges have found the Trump administration to be using an unlawful interpretation of the law to justify its mass detention policy.