Micron's blowout AI earnings sent memory stocks surging 16% — but the consequences hit fast. Apple raised prices across MacBooks and iPads by up to $500, Microsoft hiked Xbox pricing, and every Mag Seven name traded lower. The chip boom is feeding the same inflation problem the Fed is already fighting.

KPMG now expects two rate hikes by year-end. May core PCE held at 3.4% YoY, GDP was revised sharply to 2.1%, and oil rebounded after an IRGC attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz threatened the fragile US–Iran peace deal. In Australia, employment surprised massively to the upside at +40,300 jobs — ASX futures up 9 points at 8,755.

Covered today: Micron's $22bn in locked-in orders and what it means for hyperscaler margins, Apple and Microsoft passing costs through to consumers, the PCE inflation read and Fed hike outlook, the Hormuz incident and oil dynamics, commodities getting belted on the week, Australian employment and RBA minutes preview, plus the week ahead with non-farm payrolls brought forward for Independence Day.

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Micron Technology crushed Wall Street expectations overnight, reporting Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion (a $6.2 billion beat) with cloud memory up 307% year-on-year and core data centre up 653%. The stock surged ~13% after hours, dragging Nasdaq futures up around 2% and effectively reversing the session's losses. Qualcomm added to the momentum with positive CEO commentary.

In today's Morning Call, Mark Gardner covers:

— Why Micron's result matters for the broader AI trade and whether the rally can continue from here
— Oil hitting its lowest level since before the Iran war as 20 million barrels transit the Strait of Hormuz
— The commodity rout across gold, silver, copper and crude — and where the buying opportunities might be
— U.S. dollar strength and what's driving the move despite weakening consumer discretionary budgets
— Australia's May employment data due today and what it means for the RBA rate path
— Trim mean inflation coming in slightly higher than expected — rate hikes still on the agenda?
— Healthcare sector green shoots: why names like CSL, Telix and Vive are starting to turn
— JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs boosted dividends after passing Fed stress tests
— a2 Milk's positive update and Tourism Holdings' fresh takeover approach

ASX 200 futures pointed ~20 points higher at the close. SPI up around 0.2% to 8,810.

Listen to Bulls vs Bears every Friday for a deeper weekly dive — available at mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

MPC Markets Morning Call — 24 June 2026: Global Stocks Get Chip-Wrecked

The headline writers got their byline this morning: markets got chip-wrecked. South Korea's KOSPI triggered circuit breakers and suffered its second-worst session in history — down 10% — after a local report claimed SK Hynix is shifting production away from AI memory chips (HBM) and back to cheaper commodity DRAM. Samsung copped the same treatment. Both stocks make up roughly half the index, so it was carnage.

The damage spread fast. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 8%, Micron fell 13%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%. But outside the chip stocks? The market was surprisingly resilient. Microsoft was up. IBM gained 5%. Healthcare and consumer staples found buyers. The S&P 500 only fell 1.29% — not the sea of red you'd expect from that kind of Asian session.

Mark breaks down why the KOSPI is a structurally volatile market — heavy retail options usage, extreme concentration — and why its moves should be read carefully, not reacted to. He also puts the SOX in perspective: even after last night's 8% fall, it's still up 157% over the past 12 months and 80%+ since April. MPC had already reduced its chip exposure earlier in the week — AMD, TSM, Lam Research, and Palantir were all trimmed or sold.

In Australia, CPI for May drops today. The market's expecting headline inflation at 4.3% year-on-year, with the trimmed mean at 0.3% month-on-month. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also speaks. And Micron reports after the US close tonight — that one matters. A bad number and nobody wants to think about what happens to the SOX.

SpaceX joins the Russell Index on Friday. Bond yields remain stubborn. The US dollar had one of its better weeks in a long time, which is hammering silver, copper, lithium, and uranium. And KMD Brands is doing a 1-for-25 share consolidation while Sonic Healthcare got a Citi downgrade.

In this episode: KOSPI circuit breaker explained · SOX 12-month context · MPC's chip trade trimming · Australia May CPI preview · Micron earnings risk · SpaceX Russell inclusion · AUD under pressure · RBA Deputy Governor Hauser watch

Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Subscribe at mpcmarkets.com.au.

Wall Street ended mixed on Monday as a wave of AI talent departures punished Alphabet and a post-IPO hangover accelerated SpaceX's three-day rout — while rotation into cyclicals and chip stocks kept the broader market afloat. Mark Gardner breaks down what moved markets overnight and what Australian investors need to watch today.

In this episode:

• Alphabet –5% — Nobel laureate John Jumper (AlphaFold/DeepMind) leaves for Anthropic; co-Gemini architect Noam Shazeer defects to OpenAI. What back-to-back talent exits signal about Google's AI trajectory.
• SpaceX –16% to ~$154 — three days of losses, $600B in market cap erased. Is the $135 IPO price the next stop? Mark's view on where to watch for value.
• AI capex anxiety — Amazon, Meta and Microsoft shed ~$250B in combined market cap overnight. Who's writing the checks vs. who's cashing them.
• Micron +7% — strategic agreement with Anthropic on AI infrastructure. Super Micro Computer +16%. Getty Images soared on an OpenAI licensing deal.
• Lam Research — an MPC recommendation, up 5% overnight. What the team is doing with the position.
• Oil retreats — Brent below $78 as U.S.–Iran peace talks in Switzerland produce a 60-day oil sales waiver. Why the energy sector held firm despite the oil drop — and why Mark is watching Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil.
• WiseTech (ASX: WTC) — Morningstar's belated bear call, yesterday's 15% drop, and why MPC thinks a long-term buying opportunity may be forming under new CEO Zubin Appoo.
• USD/JPY at multi-month highs — where's the yen carry trade unwind? Mark's take.
• Alan Greenspan, 1926–2026 — a tribute to the Fed Chair who navigated irrational exuberance, the tech bubble, and the post-Volcker era.
• Day ahead — Wednesday's Australian CPI is the big local event. Micron earnings Thursday. What to watch.

Key levels: S&P 500 7,475 | Nasdaq 26,166 | Brent $77.84 | Gold $4,192 | USD/JPY 161.60 | ASX SPI +0.2% to 8,831

US cash markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, but global stocks stalled heading into the weekend as US-Iran peace talks opened at Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Mark Gardner breaks down the 14-point memorandum of understanding, what's likely to pass and what isn't, and why crude oil may be the standout risk-reward trade right now — with downside of 5–10% versus upside of 10–25% if negotiations collapse.

This episode covers:

— US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock: Vance, Araghchi, and the 60-day negotiating window
— Why Israel and Lebanon remain the wild card for any lasting deal
— S&P 500 futures down 0.62%, US tech futures down 1%, oil up 2.5% as of recording
— The case for energy as a portfolio hedge at extended US equity levels — Chevron, oil futures, and single-digit PE names
— Fed, ECB, and RBA hawkishness hammering precious metals — gold under pressure
— Australian CPI (Wednesday) and employment data (Thursday) — the numbers the RBA is watching
— Metcash (MTS) full-year earnings today; BHP Jansen potash cost blowout fallout
— Micron earnings Thursday morning — can memory prices justify the Philadelphia Semiconductors rally?
— US core PCE price index, final GDP, and Michigan sentiment later in the week

Mentioned: Software Survivors 2.0 webinar, Bulls vs Bears weekly podcast (Anthropic and OpenAI deep dive with Kai Chen and Jonathan Takadena)

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📧 Contact: mpcmarkets.com.au

#MorningCall #USIranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #CrudeOil #ASX200 #FedRateHike #AustralianCPI #Micron #BHP #EnergyStocks #PortfolioHedge #MPCMarkets

Chip stocks are soaring! Join Finn Judell for a comprehensive market breakdown covering today's biggest moves:Key Topics:🔹 Semiconductor Surge - Intel surges 10.4-10.6% following Apple's strategic chip deal announcement🔹 Record Highs - SOX index hits new record, S&P 500 +1.1%, NASDAQ +1.9%🔹 Geopolitical Shifts - US-Iran peace deal establishes 60-day toll halt on Strait of Hormuz🔹 Federal Reserve - Hawkish commentary as 9 of 18 Fed members pencil in rate hikes🔹 Global Markets - ASX up 3.22%, Nikkei strong, mixed performance in China🔹 Commodity Update - Precious metals under pressure, uranium continues rally, crude down 9.78%🔹 Crypto Markets - Bitcoin struggles to break $70k range despite broader altcoin strength🔹 SaaS Opportunity - Deep dive into the "SaaSpocalypse" and AI's impact on software valuationsQuick Links:Learn more about SaaS valuations in our webinar: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/ai-saas-survivors/Stay sharp in volatile markets — watch for hawkish Fed signals and continued chip sector momentum.#Markets #StockMarket #Investing #Bitcoin #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #TechStocks #SaaS #FederalReserve

The Warsh era at the Federal Reserve began with a decisive hawkish tilt — rates were held at 3.50–3.75% but updated projections show nine of 18 officials expect at least one hike this year, with the median dot shifting from a cut to a hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,512.15, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%, and the Dow slipped 1% after briefly touching a record 52,002.94 earlier in the session. Two-year Treasury yields surged 17 basis points to 4.216%, their highest since February 2025, while the 10-year rose 7bp to 4.495%. Gold was hit hard, falling 1.9% to $4,247.93 as the stronger dollar — up 0.9% to 100.47 — weighed on non-yielding assets. Oil held relatively steady, with Brent and WTI settling up 1.0% and 0.8% respectively as Strait of Hormuz reopening expectations offset the risk-off mood. ASX futures fell 61 points (0.7%) to 8,892, with investors bracing for the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank rate decisions today.

Key Takeaways

01

S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,512.15, Nasdaq 100 down 1%, Dow down 1% after briefly touching a record 52,002.94 — sharp late-session selloff on hawkish Fed.

02

New Fed Chair Warsh held rates at 3.50–3.75% but nine of 18 officials now project a hike this year — money markets price 72% chance of a hike by October.

03

Brent and WTI settled up 1.0% and 0.8% respectively; gold tumbled 1.9% to $4,247.93 as the surging dollar crushed non-yielding assets.

04

Two-year Treasury yields spiked 17bp to 4.216% — highest since February 2025 — while the 10-year rose 7bp to 4.495%; dollar index up 0.9% to 100.47.

05

SpaceX fell for the first time post-IPO after a three-day rally of nearly 50%; market cap briefly topped Amazon and Microsoft to become fourth-largest US listed company near $3 trillion.

06

ASX futures down 61 points (0.7%) to 8,892; AUD under pressure from surging USD; Bank of England, SNB and Norges Bank rate decisions due today.

The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time ever, but beneath the surface a fierce rotation out of tech and into financials, industrials and real estate tells a different story. Mark Gardner breaks down why elevated put premiums on chip stocks and extreme price-to-sales ratios echo the 2021–22 software selloff, and what that means for portfolios positioned at the top of this range.

Oil has crashed below $80 for the first time since March as markets front-run Friday's formal U.S.–Iran MoU signing in Switzerland — but with strategic reserves drained globally and demand still climbing, the pullback may be getting ahead of itself.

SpaceX surged past Amazon to become the fifth-largest company in the world at $2.65 trillion, cemented a $60 billion deal for AI coding startup Cursor, and now faces a NASDAQ index inclusion that could trigger rebalance selling across the broader market. Mark explains the five key dates every SpaceX investor needs to watch.

Plus: the RBA held rates at 4.35% but Bullock isn't ruling out more hikes, Flight Centre slashed guidance on Middle East disruption, and Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference looms tomorrow morning AEST.

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube — search MPC Markets or MPC Morning Call. Watch our webinars on demand at mpcmarkets.com.au.