US equities edged to fresh record highs as optimism over a potential Iran peace deal kept markets buoyant, but gains were capped by warnings that a resolution could take six months. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to settle at 7,039.37, extending its remarkable run from the March lows. Brent crude surged more than 4% toward $99 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. SPI futures point to a flat open for the ASX on Friday.

Wall Street reached all-time record highs on Wednesday as investors priced in growing optimism for a peace deal and rotated aggressively back into technology stocks. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.81, its first record close since January 27, while the Nasdaq Composite hit 24,016.02, eclipsing its previous October peak. The catalyst was twofold: a major rotation into software stocks — which had lagged for months on AI disruption fears — and diplomatic signals that the US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more negotiating time, with mediators working on compromises covering the nuclear program, Hormuz, and war compensation. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley completed the bank earnings sweep with record trading results, while the broader sector cut more than 5,000 jobs amid a push into AI efficiency. Oil was essentially flat — Brent at ~$95/barrel (+0.1%), WTI at $91.14 (-0.2%) — and gold fell 1% to $4,794 as risk appetite lifted. The AUD reached its highest close since June 2022, rising 0.7% to US71.8¢. The major ASX-specific risk this morning is an overnight fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery, representing approximately 10% of Australian fuel supply, with jet fuel and diesel production continuing at reduced levels. ASX 200 futures sit near-flat at 9,018 (-3pts).

Two months into the Iran war, Wall Street has decided to shrug. The S&P 500 closed at 6,967.38 on Tuesday — 1.3% above its pre-war level of February 27 and within 12 points of a fresh all-time record — as three tailwinds converged: a cooler-than-expected US PPI print, strong Q1 bank earnings, and renewed diplomatic signals from both Washington and Tehran. March PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month (vs 1.1% forecast) and core PPI gained just 0.1%, providing relief on the inflation front even as headline energy costs remain elevated. JPMorgan posted a record trading quarter with markets revenue up 20% to $11.6 billion, Citigroup recorded its highest quarterly revenue in a decade, and BlackRock pulled in $130 billion in net inflows. Oil fell sharply — Brent dropped ~4% to ~$95/barrel, WTI fell 7% to $92.14 — as the IEA warned the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for the first time since 2020. A second round of US–Iran talks is being arranged, with Trump telling the New York Post negotiations could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan. The ASX 200 is set for a positive open with futures at 9,047 (+0.50%), aided by Yancoal’s $2.5 billion acquisition of the Kestrel coal mine and Australia’s March employment data due Wednesday.