Couverture de “It’s Not Zero”: The CFO Rule for AI Forecasting | Dan Griggs

“It’s Not Zero”: The CFO Rule for AI Forecasting | Dan Griggs

“It’s Not Zero”: The CFO Rule for AI Forecasting | Dan Griggs

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 In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Intercom CFO Dan Griggs to discuss pricing and forecasting in the AI era. Dan shares the “it’s not zero” rule, the logic behind Fin’s $0.99 pricing, and how to bet on AI without blowing up the core business.—SPONSORS:Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjTabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/runAbacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai—LINKS: Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-griggs-0970181/Intercom: https://www.intercom.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Inside Rocket Companies: M&A, Metrics, and Mortgage Moats | Brian Brownhttps://youtu.be/ttedn4AULt8—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Cold Open00:01:03 Dan Griggs and Intercom’s AI Pivot00:02:45 Ice Cream to SaaS00:04:19 Learning the Business00:06:26 Operational Reality and Forecasts00:08:00 “It’s Not Zero” Forecasting00:10:09 Scenario Planning and Ambiguity00:11:23 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev00:14:43 Mental Models for Metrics00:16:15 Mental Math for Forecasts00:17:28 Core CFO Ratios00:19:13 Intercom’s Burn-the-Boats Moment00:20:53 AI as an Existential Bet00:22:21 SaaS Categories AI Can Replace00:23:04 Why Finance Lags on AI00:23:39 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacum00:27:05 Why Fin Uses Outcome Pricing00:28:59 The $0.99 Resolution Tradeoff00:30:46 Why Support Work Varies00:32:01 AI Resolution Unit Economics00:33:08 Model Choice as Costs Fall00:35:19 Domain-Specific vs Generic LLMs00:36:08 Selling Against the Core00:38:50 Founder vs Professional CEOs00:41:47 Hiring Mistakes and Instincts00:44:28 Intercom’s Finance Stack00:45:49 Craziest Expense Request
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