Hindsight Bias
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Hindsight Bias
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Why do events feel obvious after they've already haappened? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore hindsight bias - the tendency to see outcomes as predictable in retrospect, even when they weren't at the time.
Discover how this "knew it all along" effect distorts memory, inflates confidence in our judgement, and makes us underestimate uncertainty.
Studies and links:
Hindsight^Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty | Baruch Fischhoff Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel | Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1975, Vol. 1, No. 3, 288-299 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fischhoff_1975_Hindsight_is_not_equal_to_foresight.pdf
Hindsight Bias | The Decision Lab Hindsight Bias - The Decision Lab
