Markets love a good data day—until the Fed has the last word. We open with a clear read on the economy’s engine room: core durable goods rose for the sixth straight month, even as the aircraft-heavy headline slipped. Under the hood, momentum clustered in AI-adjacent categories like computers, electronics, and electrical equipment, with machinery and metals showing double‑digit year‑over‑year gains. That mix points to real business investment in compute, power, and automation—signals that feed directly into fourth quarter GDP and, potentially, future productivity.

Housing adds another puzzle piece. Starts climbed to a five‑month high and permits hit a nine‑month high, hinting at a slow thaw in a starved inventory market. The surge leaned multifamily, where large projects can move faster, and the regional spread told its own story: a sharp jump in the Northeast, strength in the West and Midwest, and a softer patch in the South. More supply down the road could help cool rent inflation, one of the stickiest components in the inflation basket.

Then the tone shifts. The Federal Reserve’s January minutes leaned hawkish, with several participants endorsing a “two‑sided” stance that keeps potential rate hikes on the table if inflation lingers above target. The market’s early rally faded as equity traders recalibrated optimistic rate‑cut timelines against a Fed that’s still focused on persistent price pressures. We connect these dots: how capex strength meets policy caution, why services and shelter inflation matter most now, and where investor expectations may need to cool.

If you’re tracking the path of rates, the durability of the AI and industrial cycle, and the outlook for housing supply, this conversation is your map for the weeks ahead. Follow, share with a friend, and leave a quick review to tell us where you think rates go next.

https://youtu.be/GwQ0Agcnj2Y

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