Épisodes

  • CITRINI — Peak Cap Ex Growth and the Late-Cycle Rotation

    CITRINI — Peak Cap Ex Growth and the Late-Cycle Rotation
    Nov 5 2026
    Citrini Research's 10th State of the Themes: peak cap ex growth in AI, a frozen AI-financing channel, and a late-cycle expansion that argues for lower beta, pairs, and real-economy rotation — not a crash call.
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    8 min
  • Sequoia's AI Ascent — The Cognitive Revolution

    Sequoia's AI Ascent — The Cognitive Revolution
    Nov 4 2026
    Guillermo Flor's summary of Sequoia Capital's AI Ascent event — a gathering of 150+ top AI minds, including Demis Hassabis, Andrej Karpathy, Greg Brockman, Boris Cherny, Dmitri Dolgov, and Jim Fan. The core thesis: AI is not another software wave but a new foundation layer — a computation revolution, not a communication revolution — and the biggest, fastest wave in the sequence from semiconductors to mobile. Three inflections frame the moment: ChatGPT (2022), reasoning models, and long-horizon agents. Commercial AGI is defined as a system that can be dispatched to a job, recover from failure, and persist to completion, delivering 10-40x improvements rather than 10-40%. Also covered: Pat Grady's calibration (waves are additive; roughly $10 trillion of services potentially addressable by machines, with US legal services alone around $400 billion); moats rebuilt around customer intimacy and workflow integration, with the diffusion gap between fast lab capability and slow enterprise adoption; Sonya Huang's agents framework (2026 as the agents story, from tab autocomplete through background agents to dark factories; services as the new software); and Constantine Buhler's cognitive revolution — the forecast that machines could perform 99.9% of cognition within a generation, closing on Protagoras: value concentrates in human experience, relationships, and attention. Source: Guillermo Flor (@guilleflorvs) on X, Nov 2, 2026. Full breakdown: "Sequoia AI Ascent 2026: The future of AI" at theaiopportunities.com (AI MARKET FIT).
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    11 min
  • Every AI Crash Call, Traced — What the Callers Are Selling

    Every AI Crash Call, Traced — What the Callers Are Selling
    Nov 4 2026
    A writer on X who goes by Henrikh took the loudest AI crash calls of this cycle and traced each one to its source: what the caller had for sale when they made the call, and what happened the last times they made it. In this summary episode, Alex and Jordan cover the pattern he found across bears and bulls alike, the track-record problem behind the famous names, and the simple filter and posture the article recommends. Source: Henrikh, 'I traced EVERY big AI crash CALL to its source: what they sell, and who was right,' X, October 21, 2026 — https://x.com/henrikhinai/status/2112910366522892521
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    9 min
  • The State of Enterprise AI 2026 — $177 Billion and the Agent Inflection

    The State of Enterprise AI 2026 — $177 Billion and the Agent Inflection
    Nov 4 2026
    A two-host summary of Menlo Ventures' 2026 State of Enterprise AI report: enterprise AI deployment spend reached $177 billion, up 5.4x year over year, with agents now generating 80 percent of model usage and frontier labs capturing 69 percent of deployment dollars. Source: Menlo Ventures, https://menlovc.com/perspective/2026-the-state-of-enterprise-ai/
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    9 min
  • Stan Druckenmiller — The Legend Buys the Rails of 24/7 Markets

    Stan Druckenmiller — The Legend Buys the Rails of 24/7 Markets
    Nov 1 2026
    Alex and Jordan catch up on Stan Druckenmiller: on October 29, 2026 his first-ever post on X announced an investment in Trade[XYZ], which builds perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, the same day Intercontinental Exchange (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) agreed to invest and exclusively operate its regulated US markets. The episode covers what perpetual futures are, why Druckenmiller says he will use the product in his own process, the Q2 13F breadcrumb (about 2.94 million shares of Hyperliquid Strategies), the roughly 20 percent jump in the HYPE token, and the CFTC approval still ahead. Watch item: Duquesne's Q3 13F, due by November 16.
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    11 min
  • Kevin Warsh — The Hawkish Hold and the Fed Remake

    Kevin Warsh — The Hawkish Hold and the Fed Remake
    Nov 1 2026
    Alex and Jordan catch up on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: the October 28, 2026 FOMC hold at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote with Cook and Hammack dissenting for a hike, Warsh's 'we are working on it' message on price stability, his refusal of forward guidance, the Bangkok IMF fireside on the AI investment surge, the new strategy-meeting calendar (seven rate votes in 2027, six in 2028), the five task forces and balance sheet review, and Fed officials calling for at least two more hikes. Next up: the December 8-9 meeting.
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    11 min
  • HEDGEYE MACRO SHOW OCT 30 — Quad 4 Risk Builds for 2027: Yields Break Down, Asia Cracks, Defensives Take the Lead

    HEDGEYE MACRO SHOW OCT 30 — Quad 4 Risk Builds for 2027: Yields Break Down, Asia Cracks, Defensives Take the Lead
    Oct 30 2026
    Alex and Jordan distill the October 30, 2026 edition of Hedgeye Risk Management's The Macro Show. Hedgeye's GIP model map (updated Oct 22) keeps inflation sticky through year-end (CPI 3.86% in 4Q26) then collapses it to 1.94% YoY by 2Q27 — flipping the regime to Quad 4 on an inflation rate-of-change rollover, not a GDP recession (their real GDP YoY stays 2.26-2.41%). The evidence: the 30-year yield first to signal bearish TREND with the 10-year teetering (10Y 4.93%, -36bp MoM) while long oil (BNO) breaks to cycle highs; 37.8% of Mag 7 2Q26 net income was unrealized marks on private AI stakes; leveraged ETF market cap rolling over from above 200 billion dollars; low beta up 10% in a month while top-quartile growth factors stall; BBB spreads widening 14bp MoM to 1.10%. Positioning: long XLV, XLP, IAK, energy; out of XLK, short DRAM and XLI; TLT shorts covered; model portfolios hold 38-59% cash and only 22-34% U.S. equities. Asia: Shanghai -15.1% from its May peak and signaling crash risk, EWY short -37% and IDX short -45% from cycle peaks, Japan exited on a bearish TREND signal. Gold at 3,982 dollars is the non-confirmation to watch. Closing segment: our desks' Quad 3 house view vs Hedgeye's Quad 4 path, and the adjudicators — yield follow-through, defensive leadership persistence, Asia spillover into U.S. credit. Source: Hedgeye Risk Management, The Macro Show, October 30, 2026.
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    10 min
  • ANTHROPIC S-1 — The Filing Is Public: $16.3B in a Half Year, One Share With 50.1% of the Vote

    ANTHROPIC S-1 — The Filing Is Public: $16.3B in a Half Year, One Share With 50.1% of the Vote
    Oct 26 2026
    Anthropic, PBC filed its public Form S-1 on SEC EDGAR on October 26, 2026 (CIK 0002130357, File No. 333-299633). Ticker: ANT (Nasdaq). Price range and share count are blank in this initial filing. Audited highlights: 2025 revenue $4,585M, operating loss $(8,060)M, net loss $(41,965)M driven mainly by non-cash fair-value charges on convertible instruments; H1 2026 revenue $16,286M, operating loss $(693)M, adjusted operating income +$1,618M; cash and short-term investments $131,651M at June 30, 2026. Governance: a single Class F share held by the founders' LLC carries 50.1% of total voting power; the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects the board majority; 5% of the fully diluted company has been contributed to the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund. This information is for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.
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    17 min