Global soybean market summary

• In the United States, soybean exports remain under pressure, with shipments down 20.3% year over year as of June 2026. The decline is largely attributed to intense competition from Brazil, whose expanding export capacity continues to capture a larger share of global demand. Despite weaker export performance, domestic crop conditions remain favorable, with soybean planting reaching 92% completion by early June, ahead of the historical average. However, reduced Chinese import demand and the potential for larger-than-expected supplies continue to create downside risks for prices and export prospects.
• Brazil continues to strengthen its position as the dominant force in the global soybean market. June 2026 exports were estimated at approximately 14.38 million metric tons, reflecting the country's aggressive export program and growing presence in international markets. Strong export performance is supported by expectations for another record crop, with 2026-27 soybean production projected at 186 million metric tons. The expansion of Brazilian supplies is increasingly displacing United States-origin soybeans in key export destinations and contributing to greater global supply availability.
• Argentina is also expected to play a significant role in global soybean trade, supported by strong production prospects. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts the country's 2025-26 soybean harvest at 50.1 million metric tons, one of the largest crops recorded in the past six seasons. The strong harvest is expected to enhance Argentina's competitiveness in export markets and add further supply to an already well-supplied global market.
• On the demand side, China recorded a 15.3% year-over-year decline in soybean imports during May 2026. The slowdown is linked in part to reduced pork production, which has weakened demand for soybean meal used in animal feed. As the world's largest soybean importer, changes in Chinese purchasing patterns continue to have significant implications for global supply and demand balances, affecting exporting countries differently depending on their market exposure.