A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2026 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.

• (01:05) - Macro outlook
• (06:05) - Deteriorating China property outlook
• (06:58) - Neutral China LGFV outlook
• (09:52) - China banks’ strategy amid deteriorating outlook
• (11:32) - Anti-involution campaign
• (13:41) - Local governments’ spending
• (16:20) - China banks’ asset quality
• (18:13) - China’s sovereign rating headroom

Davis Sun, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, provides a progress report on China’s debt substitution plan and its impact on local government vehicles (LGFVs) and finances, as well as an outlook for 2026 and beyond.

• (00:23) - Introduction
• (01:50) - Recent LGFV Sector Developments
• (05:40) - Progress of the Debt Substitution Programme
• (09:45) - LGFV Financial Health Amid Debt Substitution
• (13:17) - Fiscal Impact of Debt Substitution on Local Governments
• (16:00) - Lingering LGFV Debt Risks
• (20:34) - Local Government Infrastructure Spending
• (22:53) - 2026 Local Government Fiscal Outlook
• (25:08) - Conclusion

Fitch analysts discuss intensifying competition between Meituan and Alibaba in China’s food delivery and instant retail business.

• (00:22) - Introduction to instant retail in China
• (01:19) - Competitive landscape and on-going price war
• (02:54) - Meituan's strategy to defend market leadership
• (05:18) - Alibaba's challenges and opportunities
• (07:02) - Meituan's rating outlook change
• (09:38) - Alibaba's profitability and free cash flow
• (11:00) - How the price war could end

Chris Clague, an Associate Fellow at the IISS and an independent advisor on trade and supply chains, discusses recent trends in China-ASEAN trade and investment flows, and how they may be affected by US President Trump’s tariff policies.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (02:04) - Overview of China/ASEAN trade and investment
• (06:26) - Transshipments
• (09:57) - Transshipment tariffs effect on China’s investment
• (12:54) - China+1 strategy
• (14:58) - Top destinations and sectors for Chinese investment
• (17:35) - China’s role in global supply chains
• (20:37) - How will ASEAN manage a surge in imports from China?
• (24:13) - Conclusion

Katie Chen, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, and Franco Lam , Director, share their insights on the recent regulatory reforms in China’s AMC sector.

• (00:48) - Recent regulatory reform and impact
• (03:49) - Opportunities and challenges for AMCs
• (07:01) - What investors should watch out for
• (09:30) - Improvement in China AMCs’ capital buffer
• (11:32) - China AMCs’ ownership changes
• (13:54) - Rating actions on China AMCs

This episode explores key changes and credit trends in China’s power sector, including renewables growth and market reforms. Insights from Penny Chen, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings, reveal what lies ahead for major power generators.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:45) - Key Changes in China’s Power Sector
• (03:17) - Key Credit Themes for Power Generators
• (06:16) - Credit Outlook on China’s Power Sector
• (08:45) - China’s Modern Power System
• (11:11) - Conclusion

Harry Hu, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses China's recent efforts to manage LGFV risks, including LGFV reclassification and debt substitution plans, along with local government debt trends.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:30) - LGFV Debt Control Measures
• (03:07) - LGFV Reclassification
• (04:59) - LGFV Debt Substitution Plan
• (06:55) - Outlook for Special Purpose Bonds
• (09:34) - Local Government Interest Burdens
• (11:14) - Conclusion

Laura Zhai, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses the impact of US tariff hikes on China's commodity sectors.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:41) - Impact on aluminum and copper
• (04:43) - Impact on steel
• (07:33) - Impact on chemicals
• (10:28) - China’s energy import cost