A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2026 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.

• (01:05) - Macro outlook
• (06:05) - Deteriorating China property outlook
• (06:58) - Neutral China LGFV outlook
• (09:52) - China banks’ strategy amid deteriorating outlook
• (11:32) - Anti-involution campaign
• (13:41) - Local governments’ spending
• (16:20) - China banks’ asset quality
• (18:13) - China’s sovereign rating headroom

Davis Sun, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, provides a progress report on China’s debt substitution plan and its impact on local government vehicles (LGFVs) and finances, as well as an outlook for 2026 and beyond.

• (00:23) - Introduction
• (01:50) - Recent LGFV Sector Developments
• (05:40) - Progress of the Debt Substitution Programme
• (09:45) - LGFV Financial Health Amid Debt Substitution
• (13:17) - Fiscal Impact of Debt Substitution on Local Governments
• (16:00) - Lingering LGFV Debt Risks
• (20:34) - Local Government Infrastructure Spending
• (22:53) - 2026 Local Government Fiscal Outlook
• (25:08) - Conclusion

Fitch analysts discuss intensifying competition between Meituan and Alibaba in China’s food delivery and instant retail business.

• (00:22) - Introduction to instant retail in China
• (01:19) - Competitive landscape and on-going price war
• (02:54) - Meituan's strategy to defend market leadership
• (05:18) - Alibaba's challenges and opportunities
• (07:02) - Meituan's rating outlook change
• (09:38) - Alibaba's profitability and free cash flow
• (11:00) - How the price war could end