Today’s episode is the third in a series of three that examine the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. The report is titled, “If China Attacks Taiwan” and it is posted on GMFUS.org. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for the Chinese economy.

To recap, the study considered two scenarios that could take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalates into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military are killed, U.S. intervention eventually forces China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalates into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are degraded and eventually withdraw after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.

Our guests today are Charlie Vest and Logan Wright, who co-authored the chapter on the implications for the Chinese economy of a failed operation against Taiwan. Logan is a partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China’s economy and its global impact. Charlie is an associate director at Rhodium Group, where he manages corporate research and advisory work on China.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[02:34] Key Takeaways: China’s Ambitions vs. Economic Realities
[05:41] The Escalation Dilemma in China's Decisionmaking
[09:56] Immediate Disruptions to Trade and FDI
[13:52] Gray-Zone Military Engagement and Political Pressures
[16:48] Could Beijing Underestimate the Costs of US Intervention?
[24:12] Policy Tools and Limitations for Economic Stabilization and Recovery
[27:19] Long-Term Economic Effects
[29:24] Impact of Social Instability

Today’s episode is the second in a three-part series that examines the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for domestic social stability.

To recap, the study considered two scenarios occurring in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also US forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.

Joining us today are Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi. Sheena is an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and visiting research faculty at the US Army War College. Jake is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:11] Why This Matters to US Policymakers
[04:37] Managing Social Stability During Conflict with Taiwan
[08:01] How the CCP Identifies and Suppresses Sources of Instability
[10:44] Social Stability Organizations and Institutions
[15:06] Domestic Pressures & Potential Party Responses
[19:00] Estimating Public Support for Reunification
[23:09] Scenario 3: Protracted Conventional Conflict
[26:55] Lessons Learned from COVID Lockdowns
[31:28] Long-Term Implications for Stability Post-Conflict

Concern about the possibility of a Chinese attack against Taiwan has surged in recent years. Wargames and research studies have focused primarily on identifying gaps in US and allied capabilities with the goal of strengthening deterrence. A relatively understudied question, however, is the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. To address this gap, the German Marshall Fund led a study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs.

GMF commissioned four papers on these key areas. We considered two scenarios that could realistically take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.

The authors found that the costs to China of a failed military action against Taiwan would likely be considerable. We believe their findings are important and warrant wide dissemination. In this podcast, we’ll discuss the report’s major conclusions and implications. Then we’ll talk about the potential impact of a failed Chinese attempt to take Taiwan on China’s military capabilities and the possible international costs that Beijing could face. Our next two China Global podcasts will examine the implications of a failed military operation against Taiwan for China’s economy and social stability.

Our guests today are Zack Cooper and Joel Wuthnow. Zack is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and lecturer at Princeton University. Joel is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. Joel’s paper and this interview reflect only his personal views and not those of the National Defense University, the Department of War, or the US government.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[03:22] Implications for China, the United States, and Taiwan
[06:31] Actions to Strengthen Deterrence
[08:50] Evaluating Costs and Risks for Chinese Decisionmakers
[11:46] Lessons Learned for the PLA
[14:05] Steps to Avoid Another Attack
[17:14] Intensifying Frictions between Party and Military?
[19:53] Anticipating US Intervention as a Military Variable
[22:49] Countries and Organizations Likely to Respond to China
[25:55] Potential Diplomatic Actions and Costs
[31:50] A Treaty Alliance with Taiwan
[34:44] Why International Costs Matter to China