In today’s episode, we’ll examine the role of development finance in U.S. economic statecraft and Washington’s efforts to compete with China for influence in strategically important areas.

Competition between the United States and China increasingly extends into trade, technology, infrastructure, and critical mineral supply chains. China has used state-backed financing to support overseas infrastructure and resource projects, building economic relationships and, in some cases, dependencies that can serve its broader strategic interests. The United States has sought to offer an alternative by mobilizing private investment, strengthening supply chains, and supporting development projects that advance American economic and national security priorities.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, or DFC, is a central part of this effort. By providing financing, political risk insurance, and other forms of investment support, the DFC aims to mobilize private capital for projects in developing markets that might otherwise struggle to attract investment. Its role has taken on added significance as Washington looks to diversify critical mineral supply chains and reduce strategic dependencies.

I'm pleased to have as my guest today, Conor Coleman, Head of Investments and Chief of Staff at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. We’ll discuss the DFC’s mandate, its role in U.S. economic statecraft, and how development finance can advance American strategic interests in an era of intensifying competition with China.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:10] The Role and Mission of DFC
[03:58] Recent Projects and How They Advance US Interests
[06:37] How the DFC Diversifies Supply Chains
[08:33] Competing with the BRI
[10:33] Success in Mobilizing Partnerships and Direct Investments
[13:20] Balancing Support and Sovereignty
[16:06] Internal and External Indicators of Success
[18:12] Competition with China as a Measure
[19:48] Coordinating with Allies and Partners
[21:03] Prioritizing Competing Goals
[22:38] Challenges for DFC and Defining a Story

In today's episode, we'll examine the state of EU-China trade relations after a pivotal few weeks that may shape how Europe deals with China for years to come.

Europe's trade deficit in goods with China reached roughly 360 billion euros last year, nearly a billion euros a day, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called the imbalance structural and unsustainable. Against that backdrop, three events stand out. On October 5, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sent a joint letter to von der Leyen urging a tougher response, including a rapid-action trade instrument. It was a striking shift for a Germany that has long been wary of confrontation with Beijing. On October 8 and 9, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held trade talks in Beijing that produced 16 outcomes, including an understanding to curb Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles through a 350,000-vehicle annual quota. And on October 15 and 16, EU leaders met in Brussels to decide what comes next.

Is the hybrid deal a genuine breakthrough or a pressure-release valve? Does it do enough to prevent a second "China Shock," or will Chinese carmakers simply build in Europe instead? Could tools like the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, or its proposed faster successor, ever be used against China? And how will relations between Beijing and Brussels likely develop going forward. I am joined today by Finbarr Bermingham, Chief Europe Correspondent at the South China Morning Post, who specializes in geopolitics, geoeconomics and EU-China relations. He has spent the last five years reporting from Brussels and around Europe on rising bilateral tensions, Europe's place in the shifting world order, diplomacy, trade, and EU politics.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:26] Outcomes of the Agreement
[04:46] Trading Import Volume for Localization?
[08:20] "Made in Europe" for Chinese Hybrids
[09:16] Unilateral Actions and Ultimatums
[13:16] A Kill Switch for Unfair Trade Practices
[19:32] Measuring EU Unity and Fear of Retaliation
[25:12] Beijing’s Hardline Signals – A Shift to Accommodation?
[29:13] On Transatlantic Coordination
[31:23] What to Watch for a Durable Rebalancing

In today's episode, we'll examine China’s ambitions in the Arctic and the growing importance of Sino-Russian cooperation in the region.

The Arctic is undergoing profound change. Climate change is reducing sea ice coverage, creating new opportunities for shipping, resource extraction, infrastructure development, and military activity. Russia views the Arctic as central to its economic future and national security. China doesn’t border the Arctic, but it is a permanent observer in the Arctic Council and has increasingly sought a role in Arctic governance, scientific research, shipping, and energy development. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has transformed Moscow's relationships with both Western countries and Beijing, raising new questions about the future of Arctic cooperation and competition.

How aligned are Chinese and Russian interests in the region? What are the prospects for commercial development along the Northern Sea Route and elsewhere in the Arctic? And what challenges and opportunities do these developments present for the United States and its allies?

To help us understand these issues, we're joined by Elizabeth Wishnick, Senior Research Scientist in China Studies at CNA and Distinguished Fellow at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University. She is one of the leading experts on China's Arctic policy, Sino-Russian relations, and the geopolitical implications of a changing Arctic.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[01:49] How China’s Interests in the Arctic Have Evolved
[05:04] Which Arctic Actors are Receptive to a Larger Chinese Role?
[08:19] Unpacking China-Russia Cooperation
[13:33] Russian Invasion of Ukraine Impact on Chinese Involvement
[15:32] Benefitting from Northern Sea Route
[19:40] Arctic Energy Cooperation
[22:47] How US Asian Partners View Arctic Security and Governance
[24:51] Shifting US Policies and Priorities in the Arctic
[26:04] What to Watch in the Arctic