In this episode, George Maher-Bonnett (Deputy Editor — European Products Report) is joined by Atishya Nayak (Senior Gasoline Reporter - European Products Report) and Jide Tijani (Naphtha Reporter — European Products Report) to examine how the US driving season and the US–Iran conflict are influencing gasoline and naphtha markets in Europe — from exports and arbitrage shifts to blending economics and supply disruptions.

Key themes

• Price swings: Gasoline–naphtha spread jumped to $270/t in May, a three‑year high
• European exports to US hit an 11‑month peak as freight costs collapsed
• Drivers of volatility: US–Iran conflict, summer‑grade transition and rebound in ARA blending

Outlook risk: Tighter VGO supply, weak West African pull and narrowing US arb

In this episode of Driving Discussions, Argus editors Jared Ainsworth, US gasoline editor, and Stephanie Crawford, associate editor and US Atlantic coast gasoline reporter, analyze how the US–Iran conflict has rapidly reshaped gasoline fundamentals ahead of the summer driving season. What began as a well-supplied market has tightened significantly, with exports rising, imports lagging, and regional imbalances emerging across key hubs. The discussion unpacks the evolving impact on pricing, flows, and blending behavior across US gasoline markets.

Key Takeaways

• Tightening supply:S. gasoline inventories fell more than 16% since late February, signaling a sharper-than-normal seasonal draw.
• Global pull on barrels: Strong export demand—up ~32% vs. the five-year average—has redirected Gulf Coast supply into international markets.
• Shifting regional balances: Early Atlantic Coast tightness gave way to late-spring oversupply as imports and pipeline flows rebounded while demand lagged.
• Policy impacts: Jones Act and EPA waivers reshaped flows and blending dynamics, with limited Northeast relief but increased Gulf Coast-to-West Coast shipments.
• Atypical pricing signals: RBOB spreads widened despite regulatory flexibility, reflecting stricter blending behavior and altered summer demand patterns.

Stay ahead of evolving gasoline market dynamics with Argus’ expert analysis on pricing, flows, and regulatory impacts shaping the summer 2026 outlook.

Hear Argus’ essential analysis of China’s potash market, focusing on China’s 2026 MOP contract, developments in China’s domestic market, importer and trader pricing, China’s domestic dual pricing system, impact of the Middle East War and expectations for China’s 2027 MOP contract.

Join Huijun Yao, Editor – Asia Fertilizers and Johanna Jing, Market Analyst, Phosphate, Potash and NPKs, as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series.

Key questions answered in this podcast:

• What impact has China’s 2026 MOP contract had?
• What are the latest developments in China’s domestic potash market?
• Why are major importers keeping their prices steady, despite traders’ prices softening slightly?
• What influence does China’s domestic dual pricing system have?
• How is the Middle East war and its impact affecting Chinese importers’ views on this yea’rs MOP supply?
• What are the expectations for China’s 2027 MOP contract?

Related links

• Argus Potash price reporting service | More info | Request trial
• Argus NPKs price reporting service | More info | Request trial
• More information: Potash short and mid to long-term outlook services
• Free newsletter sign up: Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights
• Fertilizer Matters podcast series

In this special podcast episode, our experts take a closer look at how the Hormuz situation is unfolding — from the implications of Iran’s evolving stance on transit and tolls, to the impact of US enforcement measures — and what it all means for oil flows, regional trade dynamics, and global market sentiment in the weeks ahead.

Türkiye’s emissions trading system (ETS) pilot phase has been delayed by a year and is now expected to start from early 2027. In this episode, Erisa Senerdem speaks with Oğuz Tosun, CEO of Climate Balanced, on the system’s setup, challenges, and timelines. They also discuss whether Türkiye’s role as host of COP31 could accelerate the launch of the pilot phase, and what prices might look like once the market starts operating. Tune in for expert insights on:

• Türkiye ETS compliance set up, challenges

• Offsetting: national, other carbon credit standards

• How Cop-31 may accelerate Türkiye’s ETS launch

• What could Türkiye ETS prices look like?

Learn more about the Argus Carbon service

A América Latina avança como potência global em biocombustíveis em um momento de forte crescimento na demanda. O Brasil lidera o movimento, com políticas públicas e investimentos que posicionam a região como decisiva na transição para a energia limpa. Acompanhe a conversa entre Maria Lígia Barros, responsável por precificação de etanol na Argus, Natalia Dalle Cort, responsável por precificação de biodiesel, e Lucas Boacnin, gerente de desenvolvimento de negócios. Os três adiantam alguns dos temas que serão discutidos durante a conferência que a Argus promove em São Paulo entre 15 e 17 de junho.

Alguns dos tópicos deste episódio:

• Novos mandatos globais aumentam demanda por biocombustíveis

• Maior demanda por biocombustíveis na Ásia

• Brasil como fornecedor internacional de insumos

• Descarbonização do transporte marítimo

• Produção e demanda doméstica de etanol

• Alta das exportações brasileiras de biodiesel

Experts assess risk management, spot buying trends, and pulses demand dynamics amid volatility and geopolitical pressures in Southeast Asia.

In this episode of Chemical Conversations, Argus’ James Elliott speaks with global polyurethanes editor Laura Tovey-Fall and US polyurethanes reporter Catherine Rabe to discuss the latest developments and what they could mean for the market in the months ahead.

Ahead of Europur’s annual conference on 9 - 11 June 2026, the team discuss:

• What is the latest in terms of the European isocyanate supply and demand balance?
• How are the new MDI and TDI trade flows between Europe and the US driving market change?
• What is the global isocyanates outlook for the second half of 2026?

Laura Tovey-Fall will be presenting on 'The Flexible PU Foam Market Outlook: Upstream & Downstream' at Europur's conference on Wednesday 10th June 2026. Click here (chemicals@argusmedia.com) to request a meeting or find out more about Argus Isocyanates.