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Futures and options trading involve risk and are not suited for everyone.

We track a week where policy turned into price: a Supreme Court ruling upended a tariff path, the White House jumped to 15 percent under a different statute, and USDA moved money fast to shore up farm cash flow. We map the margin math, the demand levers that matter, and the geopolitical risks that could swing soy, corn, and livestock into spring.

• Supreme Court curbs tariff approach and triggers policy pivot
• Section 122 tariffs to 15 percent with key ag exemptions
• Accelerated Section 301 probes raise retaliation risk
• Clarifying farmer bridge aid funding and access routes
• Sugar sector aid to stabilize beet and cane producers
• USDA Outlook: prices stabilize below break‑even
• Acreage shifts toward soybeans on price ratio
• Livestock strength as cattle supplies stay tight
• E15 path, RFS timelines, and demand upside
• China trip watch: ethanol tariff, soybean buys, leverage
• John Deere signals cycle bottom in equipment
• Farm Bill 2.0 markup delayed by weather
• Section 32 food buys boost specialty crops demand
• Wheat rally, wildfire relief, and market positioning

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Policy, prices, and timing drive this week’s ag outlook as we unpack Farm Bill 2.0 odds, fast-moving USDA payments, and the E15 fight that could unlock corn demand. Trade momentum builds with China, Taiwan, and India while courts and EPA shifts reshape the rules ahead.

• Farm Bill 2.0 faces committee passage but lacks clear House floor votes
• ELRP top-ups and Farmer Bridge Assistance bolster cash flow with Feb 23 rollout signaled
• CRP sign-ups reopen near acreage cap with potential need to raise limits
• Year-round E15 promises ethanol demand while refiners push RFS reforms
• CPI cools and the Fed likely holds, with cuts eyed in June or July
• Cargill’s Milwaukee closure highlights 75-year low cattle supplies
• Screwworm controls, selective border reopening, and biosecurity politics
• China soybean interest lifts spreads; sorghum demand rebounds
• Taiwan deal expands U.S. energy and meat access; India framework adds sorghum
• House rebuke of Canada tariffs remains symbolic with veto likely
• EPA endangerment repeal heads to court; regulatory costs at stake
• Supreme Court tariff ruling could redefine executive trade power
• 45Z and SAF build a domestic utilization path for corn and soy

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We unpack how year-round E15, RFS mandates, and the pending 45Z rules could finally tilt U.S. agriculture toward stronger domestic demand, while a hawkish-leaning Fed pick and a surging dollar ripple through grains, metals, and exports. We also track USMCA maneuvering, right-to-repair momentum, and a practical path to manage risk into spring.

• Year-round E15 path in Congress and what it means for corn demand
• Treasury’s 45Z guidance prospects and crush-for-oil economics
• FOMC hold, Kevin Warsh nomination, and rate-cut odds
• Dollar strength, metals shock, and spillovers into grains
• USDA trade deficit trends and why domestic use matters
• USMCA timelines, EV workarounds, and North American leverage
• Right-to-repair signals on DEF systems and downtime risk
• ECO and SCO insurance math for spring acreage battles
• Ten near-term positives for farm cash flow and demand

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

A winter storm, a metals rally, and a political stall on E15 collide with a surprise export surge and a fresh farm-aid bridge, shaping a volatile but opportunity-rich setup for ag. We share why China’s buying now, how E15 still has a path, and the realistic timeline for relief.

• studio launch, premium updates, and travel plans
• storm impacts on energy, logistics, and livestock marketing
• E15 blocked for now, study council formed, next legislative vehicle likely supplemental
• Trump’s Iowa visit and ethanol plant optics as market signal
• farm aid bridge, Title I timing, and likely top-up payments
• defending farm aid within the broader subsidy landscape
• Greenland geopolitics, Canada tensions, and safe-haven flows
• China’s 12 MMT soybean buys and weekly export highs
• screwworm safeguards, cattle on feed data, market reaction
• House passes all FY2026 bills, Senate timing, shutdown odds
• Fed hold likely, potential Powell successor, market read-through
• rail brake risks in extreme cold and retail stockouts
• Klobuchar’s potential move and Senate Ag implications
• USDA portal for foreign farmland tracking
• restoring prevent plant buy-up pressure
• fertilizer tariffs’ cost impact and Canada trade links
• food price outlook, beef tightness, egg decline, sticky services
• eight reasons for cautious optimism into spring

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We break down fresh farm aid proposals from both parties, the real stakes of year‑round E15, and how RFS and 45Z could reset corn and soy demand. We also unpack WASDE surprises, cattle volatility, Brazil’s beef push, and a Canada–China canola thaw.

• GOP plan to expand Farmer Bridge Assistance and include prevent plant acres
• Democrat framework tying farm and family relief with broader eligibility
• Specialty crop and sugar sector pain and proposed targeted support
• Higher USDA loan limits to ease access to credit
• SCOTUS timing on tariff authority and market risk
• China–Canada trade swap and canola tariff cuts
• WASDE recap: harvested acres, carryout, and export gaps
• Year‑round E15 odds and ethanol demand implications
• RFS 2026–27 signals and RIN sourcing debate
• USMCA leverage, likely extension, and North American interdependence
• Brazil maxes U.S. beef quota amid strong demand
• Cattle selloff drivers and screw worm rumor reality check
• Silver’s surge as a lesson in leverage and emotion

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We set the table for a high-stakes USDA report that could reset corn’s balance sheet while we track the real levers of demand: E15, ethanol octane, and 45Z. Along the way, we unpack rates, USMCA, trade rulings, cattle supply constraints, and new dietary guidelines that tilt toward protein.

• Corn yield revisions and feed use as key price drivers
• Soybeans steady, wheat following corn rather than leading
• Fertilizer costs and tighter credit squeezing margins
• Ethanol as fastest demand lever with year-round E15
• 45Z timing for sustainable aviation fuel tax credits
• USMCA’s role in corn exports to Canada and Mexico
• Interest rate outlook, CPI data, and FSA loan options
• SCOTUS trade authority case and tariff alternatives
• Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia risks and sanctions spillovers
• Screw worm, border constraints, and firm beef prices
• Dietary guidelines favoring protein and full-fat dairy
• Minnesota politics, fraud concerns, and budget strain

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

A U.S. move in Venezuela reshapes energy flows, raises the global risk premium, and sends clear signals to Cuba, China, and Russia, while a tightening U.S. cattle supply collides with screw-worm containment and no fixed border reopening timeline. Farmers get bridge payments based on modeled losses, with larger per-acre support where multi-year margins bled the most.

• Why Venezuelan heavy crude and Gulf refining capacity matter
• How gold reserves, oil grades, and risk premiums shift pricing
• Signals to Cuba, China, and Russia from the policy pivot
• Screw-worm cases nearing Texas and biosecurity benchmarks
• Cattle supply cuts, packer strain, and beef price pressure
• Farm Bridge per-acre rates and eligibility limits
• Why rice, cotton, and peanuts score higher support
• State-level payout concentration and timing to February
• ARC/PLC expectations later this year and cash flow planning
• Using odd signals like the Pizza Indicator to manage risk

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We sprint through a year where metals spiked, bonds bristled, and policy moved markets as much as weather. We map the big shifts in grains, cattle, inputs, biofuels, trade, and the politics of food prices, then lay out what could drive demand in 2026.

• stocks rising while bonds flag risk
• silver surge and China’s export controls
• corn buoyed by exports despite big crops
• soybeans pressured by Brazil and timing
• wheat capped by global stocks
• cotton weakened on China demand
• cattle cycle tightness and shock events
• hog inventories tamping prices
• bird flu and vaccine trade implications
• sticky food inflation as political fuel
• SNAP fights and affordability fault lines
• GLP-1 drugs shifting sugar and alcohol demand
• MAHA focus on ultra-processed foods
• USDA reorg and service capacity strain
• input costs squeezing margins and machinery slowdown
• RFS, E-15, and 45Z delays clouding biofuels
• rail merger bid and logistics uncertainty
• rural healthcare costs and ACA credits
• labor reform tensions around H2A and year-round needs
• WOTUS reset pushing oversight to states
• OB3 tax permanence shaping farm planning
• cannabis reclassification and rural economics
• structural policy forces redefining ag beyond cycles
• pivot to domestic utilization for durable demand

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