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Policy, prices, and timing drive this week’s ag outlook as we unpack Farm Bill 2.0 odds, fast-moving USDA payments, and the E15 fight that could unlock corn demand. Trade momentum builds with China, Taiwan, and India while courts and EPA shifts reshape the rules ahead.

• Farm Bill 2.0 faces committee passage but lacks clear House floor votes
• ELRP top-ups and Farmer Bridge Assistance bolster cash flow with Feb 23 rollout signaled
• CRP sign-ups reopen near acreage cap with potential need to raise limits
• Year-round E15 promises ethanol demand while refiners push RFS reforms
• CPI cools and the Fed likely holds, with cuts eyed in June or July
• Cargill’s Milwaukee closure highlights 75-year low cattle supplies
• Screwworm controls, selective border reopening, and biosecurity politics
• China soybean interest lifts spreads; sorghum demand rebounds
• Taiwan deal expands U.S. energy and meat access; India framework adds sorghum
• House rebuke of Canada tariffs remains symbolic with veto likely
• EPA endangerment repeal heads to court; regulatory costs at stake
• Supreme Court tariff ruling could redefine executive trade power
• 45Z and SAF build a domestic utilization path for corn and soy

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We unpack how year-round E15, RFS mandates, and the pending 45Z rules could finally tilt U.S. agriculture toward stronger domestic demand, while a hawkish-leaning Fed pick and a surging dollar ripple through grains, metals, and exports. We also track USMCA maneuvering, right-to-repair momentum, and a practical path to manage risk into spring.

• Year-round E15 path in Congress and what it means for corn demand
• Treasury’s 45Z guidance prospects and crush-for-oil economics
• FOMC hold, Kevin Warsh nomination, and rate-cut odds
• Dollar strength, metals shock, and spillovers into grains
• USDA trade deficit trends and why domestic use matters
• USMCA timelines, EV workarounds, and North American leverage
• Right-to-repair signals on DEF systems and downtime risk
• ECO and SCO insurance math for spring acreage battles
• Ten near-term positives for farm cash flow and demand

www.agbull.com

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www.agbull.com

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AgBull Audio and Video Links

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

A winter storm, a metals rally, and a political stall on E15 collide with a surprise export surge and a fresh farm-aid bridge, shaping a volatile but opportunity-rich setup for ag. We share why China’s buying now, how E15 still has a path, and the realistic timeline for relief.

• studio launch, premium updates, and travel plans
• storm impacts on energy, logistics, and livestock marketing
• E15 blocked for now, study council formed, next legislative vehicle likely supplemental
• Trump’s Iowa visit and ethanol plant optics as market signal
• farm aid bridge, Title I timing, and likely top-up payments
• defending farm aid within the broader subsidy landscape
• Greenland geopolitics, Canada tensions, and safe-haven flows
• China’s 12 MMT soybean buys and weekly export highs
• screwworm safeguards, cattle on feed data, market reaction
• House passes all FY2026 bills, Senate timing, shutdown odds
• Fed hold likely, potential Powell successor, market read-through
• rail brake risks in extreme cold and retail stockouts
• Klobuchar’s potential move and Senate Ag implications
• USDA portal for foreign farmland tracking
• restoring prevent plant buy-up pressure
• fertilizer tariffs’ cost impact and Canada trade links
• food price outlook, beef tightness, egg decline, sticky services
• eight reasons for cautious optimism into spring

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