Fed Signals Pause at 3.75%-4.00%, Term Premium Spikes to 1.35 as Yields Top 5%

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Fed Signals Pause at 3.75%-4.00%, Term Premium Spikes to 1.35 as Yields Top 5%

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The Fed moved to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range with dots pointing to a cautious plateau near 4.00% to 4.25% by year-end. But the real story is in the bond market: ten-year Treasury yields hitting 5.16% with term premiums at 1.35, reflecting fiscal supply pressure and duration risk, not rate expectations. Two-year yields at 4.8%. Credit spreads are all-time tight even as the long end reprices. We break down what the yield curve steepening signals for the next six months, where institutional money is positioning in the belly of the curve, and why real rates and fiscal deficits are keeping long-duration Treasuries elevated despite a 95.5% probability of no near-term cuts. Data from the Cleveland Fed, dot plot analysis, and credit market positioning ahead of the October decision.

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