Our guest this episode is Benjamin Tal — Managing Director and Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets. Benjamin has spent over two decades publishing CIBC's influential "In Focus" research, has been recognized by the International Monetary Fund as a leading expert on Canada's real estate market and has testified before Parliamentary committees on the country's most pressing economic issues.

In this episode, Dave and Benjamin dive into the state of Canada's economy heading into 2026. They break down what's gone wrong with Canada's real estate market, evaluate recent central bank decisions and unpack the impact of HST/GST relief and development charges on housing supply. Benjamin also explains the structural shift toward a rental culture in Canada and why rent control has been so disastrous for affordability.

The conversation also explores the widening productivity gap between Canada and the U.S. in the AI era and the possibility of universal income guarantees on the horizon. Along the way, Benjamin shares his perspective on monopolies and limited competition in Canadian industry, the overwhelming red tape facing small businesses, the real effects of immigration on the market and why CPI calculations may be understating the true cost of living.

Whether you're a homeowner, an investor or simply trying to make sense of where Canada's economy is heading, this episode is packed with sharp, data-driven insights from one of the country's most trusted economists.

Show Notes

(00:00) Intro & Disclaimer

(00:55) Intro to Benjamin Tal

(02:32) Why It's Important to Connect Macroeconomics to Personal Finance

(03:15) Understanding Canada's Broken Real Estate Market

(07:23) Evaluating Central Bank Decisions and Interest Rates

(08:05) Impact of HST/GST Relief and Development Charges

(09:48) A Shift Toward a Rental Culture in Canada

(11:38) The Disastrous Impact of Rent Control

(13:22) How the Condo Market and Developer Landscape Is Changing

(16:18) Canada Versus U.S.A. Productivity & The AI Revolution

(20:56) Are We Headed Towards Universal Income Guarantees?

(21:45) Monopolies and Limited Competition in Canadian Industry

(22:23) Overwhelming Regulations and Red Tape for Small Businesses

(24:25) The Current Immigration Situation and its Market Effects

(25:52) Inaccuracies in CPI Calculations and the Real Cost of Living

(26:29) Conclusion