First published in A Reasonable Rant: Private Edition (members-only subscription) on 26 Feb 2026.
In Episode 15, Neo examines valuation not as a financial output, but as a behavioural system that shaped venture capital decisions between 2020 and 2025. Drawing on over 28,000 global funding events and a focused analysis of Asian markets, the episode unpacks how valuation drifted from an analytical tool into a negotiated signal. As traditional methods like discounted cash flow and comparables break down in early-stage environments, a simpler mechanism quietly takes over. Ownership becomes arithmetic, and arithmetic becomes value.

As the cycle unfolds, the consequences become harder to ignore. Inflated starting points create expectations most companies cannot sustain, while capital concentration at the top distorts the perception of recovery for everyone else. What looks like progress in aggregate often hides fragility at the company level, where time between rounds lengthens, valuation step-ups shrink, and the next milestone becomes harder to reach.

This episode reframes valuation entirely. Not as a verdict on what a company is worth, but as a commitment that shapes what it must become. Because once the number is set, it doesn’t just reflect reality. It starts to define it.