Doctrine 22: When "It Depends" Is the Right Answer: How to Think in Probabilities Under Uncertainty
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Doctrine 22: When "It Depends" Is the Right Answer: How to Think in Probabilities Under Uncertainty
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Complex systems punish false certainty. “It depends” is not a cop out. It is the only honest answer when outcomes are probabilistic, base rates matter, and the cost of being wrong is not symmetric.
In this episode, Anthony Veltri gives you a practical way to think under uncertainty: update your priors, reason in ranges, and make decisions based on expected value and downside, not on vibes or confident sounding narratives. The goal is not to sound smart. The goal is to stay effective when information is incomplete, conditions drift, and decisions still have to be made.
Note on format: this is a modified audio reading of the written entry. Some tables do not translate well to spoken narration, so they are referenced rather than read verbatim. The audio version is edited to preserve the same message and decision utility without forcing you to sit through table recitations.
Reflection: What would have to be true for you to change your mind, and what is the cost if you do not?
https://anthonyveltri.com/guide/doctrine-22-when-it-depends-is-the-right-answer-how-to-think-in-probabilities-under-uncertainty/
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