Macro backdrop: Record holiday shopper traffic and higher spending per person collide with weak confidence and soft core retail sales—consumers are still going out, but they’re laser-focused on value and promotion.

Beer check-in: October shipments down ~3–4% YoY, but scanner data show a holiday rebound; non-alcoholic beer and super-premium brands like Michelob Ultra, Pacifico, Guinness, and White Claw lead growth while core segments remain soft.

Spirits snapshot: Slight volume declines overall, with Tequila and RTDs still growing; whiskey is bifurcating—premium and export strong, value segments weak—against a backdrop of tariffs, craft bankruptcies, and ongoing M&A and capital raises.

Wine under pressure: Off-premise wine is down mid-single digits; Treasury Wine takes a ~$450M impairment on its U.S. business, while premium and DTC pockets stay resilient and Millennials become the largest wine-drinking cohort.

Channel shifts: Dollar stores and private label emerge as key pressure valves for value-seeking shoppers; delivery platforms and B2B marketplaces (DoorDash, Instacart, Provi) keep reshaping discovery and fulfillment.

Non-alc & energy momentum: Non-alcoholic beer and energy drinks post double-digit growth, with robust innovation pipelines targeting moderation, function, and flavor-forward occasions.

Cannabis interplay: New recognition of cannabis hyperemesis and fresh evidence of cannabis-alcohol substitution underscore how cannabis is reshaping some drinking occasions.

Regulatory and legal watch: Heightened scrutiny on pay-to-play, underage sales, ultra-processed foods, gig-worker rules, and non-competes; New York’s wine-in-grocery push could materially change off-premise wine distribution in 2026.