Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal.

Chapters:

**(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next**

10-15 million barrels per day flowing out, but Iran maximizing exports while US refills reserves.

**(08:46) Russia's refining collapse is reshaping global product markets**

Runs halved from 6M to 3M bpd. Ukraine's drone campaign crippling refineries. Fuel imports imminent.

**(12:50) Distillates at 10-year highs: Russian exports collapsing, US yields maxed**

Global diesel and jet spreads outdoing 2022. East-West spreads historic. Products decoupling from crude.

**(17:25) Gasoline: The trend is your friend, but watch blending margins**

RBOB and EBOB spreads rally to $51 on stock depletion. Arbs from ARA still pointing West.

**(27:20) Crude at peak weakness: Why the TI Brent short thesis works now**

Paper collapsed, logs battered, all solutions materialized. Neil on why prices can only rise from here.

June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea.

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Chapters:

(01:45) Hormuz reignites and the ceasefire cracks Vessels attacked, US revokes Iranian oil license, transits near zero. Trump says the truce is effectively over.

(03:13) Spreads, OPEC+ and depleted inventories Brent flips to backwardation, OPEC+ adds another August barrel, global stocks still down over 1 billion barrels.

(06:21) Can China save the product market? Beijing clears 1.3 million tons of product exports, but volumes skew to gasoline and jet, not diesel.

(08:07) Russia's diesel ban and refinery 101 Drone strikes force a Russian export ban. June breaks down which units get hit and what it signals.

(12:08) Crude: the ADNOC tender and the mini glut Chinese teapots buy Upper Zakum, Dubai returns to backwardation, how you can be short crude yet see a glut.

(15:01) Distillates, jet and freight European cracks surge past 60, a short HOGO idea, jet becomes a diesel story, Michael Ryan's de-escalation freight case.

Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer.

Chapters:

(01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off

Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value?

(09:15) The Asian crude buffet

Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet.

(16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs

UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return?

(20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban

Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize.

(30:13) Gasoline and naphtha

Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.