The Trump administration has touted its tariff strategy as a historic economic success, citing record stock market highs, falling trade deficits, and “virtually no inflation.” But what do the numbers actually show? In this episode of “Baker Briefing”, Ambassador David Satterfield sits down with John Diamond, Director of the Baker Institute’s Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to examine the data behind the claims. They break down who really pays for the tariffs, what’s driving GDP growth, and whether inflation has truly fallen. This conversation offers an objective assessment of how tariffs are reshaping the U.S. economy and who is ultimately better off as a result.

Featured:

• Ambassador David Satterfield: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield
• John Diamond, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond

Mentioned in this episode:

• “Donald J. Trump: My Tariffs Have Brought America Back,” Wall Street Journal.
• Two-Handed Economist Podcast, hosted by Dr. John Diamond: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/two-handed-economist-podcast

This conversation was recorded on February 10, 2026.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond argues that the government shutdown has become an economic tax on ordinary Americans. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is heeding warning signals from the labor market as artificial intelligence and automation rewrite the rules for major industries, prompting companies like Amazon, UPS, and Intel to lay off thousands of workers.

In other news, President Donald Trump is busy signing trade deals in China and Southeast Asia. But the deals’ actual value depends on how long they’re sustained.

This episode was recorded on Oct. 29, 2025.

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As the government shutdown drags on, the economic and political costs are mounting. John W. Diamond explains the impacts for workers, markets, and economic policymaking. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is still expanding. But the tug-of-war between demand and supply shocks — notably, declining immigration and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — amount to a fragile equilibrium.

This conversation was recorded on Oct. 15, 2025.

Mentioned:

• Bill King, “Republicans Getting the Blame for the Shutdown,” https://www.billkingblog.com/blog/republicans-getting-the-blame-for-the-shutdow

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A congressional standoff over Affordable Care Act premium subsidies has triggered another government shutdown. John explains how we got here, why shutdowns aren’t effective policy tools, and what these recurring episodes reveal about budgetary and policymaking dysfunction in Washington.

Then, he turns to the Trump administration’s proposal to overhaul the H-1B visa lottery system by favoring higher-wage positions. John examines whether this could better align the temporary, nonimmigrant visa program with its statutory mission: filling high-skilled labor shortages in specialty occupations.

This conversation was recorded on Oct. 1, 2025.

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President Trump’s new $100,000 fee on H‑1B visa petitions has catalyzed a fresh debate: will it protect U.S. workers — or hobble innovation? In this episode, John Diamond explores both sides. He digs into how H‑1Bs shape firm behavior, labor markets, and the role of startups versus incumbents. What’s the real cost — and who pays it?

This conversation was recorded on Sept. 24, 2025.

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John Diamond explains why a weakening labor market is pushing the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate (even in the face of sticky inflation). He also unpacks the looming government shutdown — and why, unless Washington reforms its budget process, we should expect bigger deficits and higher inflation risk.

This conversation was recorded on Sept. 16, 2025.

Clips used in this episode:

• “Revised job numbers raise new concerns about economic slowdown,” PBS News, Sept. 9, 2025.

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John Diamond breaks down three major developments. First, a federal appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his sweeping tariffs. Second, a new executive order from Trump eliminates the de minimis exemption, which had allowed imports worth $800 or less to enter the country tax-free. Third, new jobs numbers show an increasingly fragile labor market.

This conversation was recorded on Sept. 3, 2025.

Clips used in this episode:

1. “BREAKING: U.S. appeals court rules Trump's global tariffs are illegal,” NBC News, August 29, 2025.
2. “‘US will be destroyed if…’” The Economic Times, September 1, 2025.
3. “Trump ends tariff exemption for low-value packages,” CNN, August 29, 2025.
4. “US July Jolts Report: Job openings fall by 176,000,” Bloomberg Television, September 3, 2025.

Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — keeping prices stable and achieving maximum employment — is being tested.

At its Sept. 17 meeting, the central bank must decide whether or not to cut interest rates, a decision complicated by persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, and an escalating pressure campaign waged by the Donald Trump administration. Trump has pushed for steep rate cuts, repeatedly called for Fed chair Jerome Powell to step down, and more recently moved to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook in a broader effort to gain leverage over the independent agency.

John Diamond lays out the political and monetary challenges facing the Fed and explains what really matters for the country’s long-term economic health.

This conversation was recorded on Aug. 27, 2025.

Clips used in this episode:

1. “Trump calls Fed chair Powell ‘stupid person,’” Reuters, June 18, 2025.
2. “New Fed statement about Trump plan to fire Lisa Cook,” CBS News, August 26, 2025.
3. “Fed Chair Powell: Labor market is in a ‘curious kind of balance,’” CNBC, August 22, 2025.

Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.