If the small-business economy had a theme in 2025, it was resilience in the face of mixed signals. The nation’s economy is growing strongly today, following a stumble last year. Hiring has stayed positive overall, despite growing at a slower pace than in recent years. Consumers kept opening their wallets even as they told pollsters they were worried. And the Federal Reserve finally began to deliver the interest rate relief that many small business owners had been hoping for.

In this episode, we walk through our latest edition of the "The Economy Explained" for February 2026. Full article here: https://gusto.com/resources/gusto-insights/the-economy-explained-feb-2026?pagePath=resources&pagePath=gusto-insights&pagePath=the-economy-explained-feb-2026

The latest data on small-business hiring from Gusto shows that AI isn’t the “jobs apocalypse” for small companies that some have feared. Our evidence suggests that small businesses with more AI-exposed workforces are seeing revenue and hiring gains – not the dramatic job losses that some have predicted. There’s a learning curve, but early evidence points toward growth, not decline.

In this episode, we explore a major new study from Gusto's Insights Group, "The Reality of AI’s Impact on Small Businesses: New Evidence from Gusto Payroll Data."

Full study is here: https://gusto.com/resources/gusto-insights/ai-impact-on-smbs-2026

Much of the conversation around artificial intelligence focuses on job displacement – the fear that AI might automate away millions of jobs. But this narrative overlooks a practical and less-discussed impact that AI will have on jobs: the massive physical infrastructure required to power AI is creating surging demand for skilled trade workers around America.

In this research, we examine how pay for several skilled trades is being impacted by the AI datacenter boom today. Read the full research here: https://gusto.com/resources/gusto-insights/ai-data-center-wage-growth

Starting in 2026, workers earning tips or overtime may see slightly bigger paychecks under new federal tax deductions created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

How much will paychecks actually change for the typical small business worker from these new deductions? In this episode we walk through new research from the Gusto Insights Group breaking down the numbers for small businesses and their employees.

Full research here: https://gusto.com/resources/gusto-insights/taxes-tips-overtime-obbba-2026?pagePath=resources&pagePath=gusto-insights&pagePath=taxes-tips-overtime-obbba-2026

Hiring among America’s small businesses posted solid gains in January, adding +37,100 net new jobs for the month – slightly below the 12-month average of 52,400 jobs, but marking continued improvement from the October-November soft patch and a sharp year-over-year gain from January 2025’s -12,100 net job loss.

In this episode, we break down the latest Gusto Small Business Jobs Report for January 2026.

Gusto’s analysis finds that small business owners typically earn about 40% more than their employees, reflecting their dual roles as workers, managers, and primary risk-bearers. Owner pay rose sharply during the post-pandemic recovery but has largely stalled since 2023, as inflation, tighter credit, and shifting demand increased pressure on small firms. The data shows that industry—not firm size—drives most pay differences, with owners in knowledge-based sectors earning several times more than those in consumer-facing industries. Importantly, owner compensation is highly flexible: when conditions tighten, owners often delay or cut their own pay first to stabilize cash flow and keep employee wages steadier. The findings suggest that owner pay acts as a key shock absorber for small businesses, helping firms navigate volatility while limiting downstream impacts on workers.

Gusto’s analysis reveals that missed payrolls among U.S. small businesses surged by over 50% between 2019 and 2025, a trend largely driven by inflation, high interest rates, and thin cash reserves. While these failures typically stem from temporary liquidity gaps rather than terminal business failure, they act as a "breaking point" that triggers lasting employment declines. Data shows that affected firms often reduce their headcount by 8% to 10% within six months, with staffing levels rarely recovering even two years later. The report highlights a widening liquidity divide, as stronger companies have expanded their cash runways while vulnerable firms continue to operate within days of a crisis. Ultimately, the research suggests that targeted financial interventions, such as faster credit access and better cash-flow tools, could prevent these temporary shortfalls from becoming permanent economic damage for millions of workers.

To close out 2025, many small businesses did something they hadn’t been able to do as confidently in recent years: share their success with employees. New data from Gusto shows that year-end bonuses rose sharply in both size and reach, with average bonuses jumping more than 11 percent and a growing share of workers receiving a payout. These gains were broad-based across industries, from tourism and entertainment to professional services and tech, pointing to underlying strength in the small-business economy even as uncertainty lingered. In this episode, we’ll break down what’s behind the surge in bonuses—and what it tells us about how small businesses are entering 2026.