a contrarian and fascinating outlook for the US economy: the 2026 Coiled Spring. While many experts have spent years bracing for a traditional recession, the research suggests that the grinding pressure we’ve felt is not a sign of collapse, but rather the potential energy fueling a historic launch.
We begin by deconstructing the "rolling recession" that has gripped the country since 2023. While headline GDP numbers appeared positive, foundational sectors like housing—which saw sales volume drop to levels not seen since the 1980s on a per capita basis—and manufacturing were effectively "frozen solid" by a 22-fold increase in the Fed funds rate. This aggressive rate shock served as the "hand" pushing down the economic spring.
The episode highlights three massive "rivers" converging to release this tension in 2026:
• Policy & Tax Incentives: We explore a major pivot toward deregulation and the "single biggest lever" in the report: 100% accelerated depreciation. This mechanism, retroactive to early 2025, allows businesses to write off 100% of tech and equipment investments in the first year, potentially turning the US into the most tax-competitive place on Earth.
• The Deflationary Boom: Contrary to fears of "10-dollar eggs," the sources project a "good deflation" driven by technology. With Trueflation data already showing inflation at 1.7% and housing prices cooling, we discuss how falling costs can actually drive a surge in purchasing power.
• The AI Engine: We break down the 99% annual drop in AI inference costs and the projected $600 billion capex boom in data centers. This technological shift is being compared to the internal combustion engine and electricity during the Roaring '20s, promising a productivity spike of 5% to 7%.
Finally, we analyze the "US supremacy trade," looking at why global capital is flooding into the dollar, gold’s vertical climb, and how multiple compression could make today’s expensive stock prices look like a bargain in hindsight.
Is your business or career ready for the "fighter jet" velocity of this recovery?. Join us as we explore how to stay agile and ride the wave of the 2026 snapback