Farmer Mac’s Jackson Takach returns with a title update and a clear read on the new USDA outlook. He unpacks why USDA revised 2025 net cash farm income down by about 30 billion dollars, then sets 2026 at 158 billion dollars with roughly 44 billion dollars of support payments, about 30 percent of profits. Inputs are still high for grains and oilseeds, while protein sectors benefit from cheaper feed and steady demand. Land values look similar to 2025 with strength in cattle and recreational areas, caution in the Delta, and water-sensitive pockets out West. Jackson closes with rate risk, fertilizer and trade wildcards, and a simple plan for producers to time operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

Farmer Mac

https://www.farmermac.com/

The Feed

https://www.farmermac.com/news-events/the-feed/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

• USDA pegs 2026 net cash farm income at about 158 billion dollars after marking 2025 down by roughly 30 billion, with about 44 billion coming from support programs.

• Grains and oilseeds face tight margins from high inputs and softer prices, while cattle, hogs, and poultry see better profitability on lower feed costs and solid demand.

• Farmland outlook echoes 2025: firmer in cattle and recreation zones and near metros, softer pressure in the Delta across soybeans, cotton, and rice, and localized water risks in the West.

• Financial health remains okay at the sector level with lower debt-to-asset ratios and easing short-term interest expense, though planning matters.

• Key swing factors for 2026 include fertilizer supply, trade flows, drought, and biofuels demand; producers should set a written plan for operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

• Farmer Mac updates: earnings call on February 19, quarterly webinars, The Feed, and a Farmland Price Index based on actual trades coming soon.

Morse Nursery’s Tim Mills and National Land Realty agent Jacob Jenkins explain how to “row crop” hardwoods with proven genetics, tree tubes, and tight management to create reliable timber and wildlife results. From West Lafayette, Indiana, Morse grows grafted fruit and nut trees and supplies Tree Pro tubes that speed straight, tall growth. They cover black walnut and white oak veneer genetics, blight-resistant American hybrid chestnuts that bear in 3 to 5 years, planting densities of 100 to 125 trees per acre on 20-foot centers, and why weed control and pruning discipline make or break a planting. For hunters, they map staggered drop times across apples, persimmons, and chestnuts to hold deer after surrounding crops are harvested. For investors, Tim outlines chestnut orchard math at maturity around year 15, with 2,000 to 3,000 pounds per acre and common wholesale pricing near 4 dollars per pound, while guiding to a conservative target near 6,000 dollars per acre.

Morse Nursery:

https://morsenursery.com/

Talk with Jacob Jenkins:

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/jacob-jenkins

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Forester and timber consultant Kraig Moore (KY/TN) breaks down the 2025 hardwood landscape: prices up roughly 3% YoY overall (net flat after inflation), sharp species splits (yellow-poplar +~20%, sugar maple +20–30%, white oak −~11% YoY but +~52% over 5 years; walnut +~85% over 5 years), and fragile mill capacity after 100+ sawmill closures in two years. He explains how tariffs, China’s historic pull for ~40% of U.S. lumber, and production shifting to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China) are reshaping demand. For landowners, the play is smart silviculture, competition-driven quality, patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoiding diameter-limit cuts, and aligning to mills within ~60–90 miles, to grow value and keep white oak (bourbon barrel essential) regenerating amid maple/beech pressure. Kentucky is ~50% forested, and with interest rates easing and housing starts improving, Kraig is cautiously bullish on hardwoods as a diversification pillar.

Episode takeaways:

• Market snapshot: Hardwood prices ~+3% YoY overall (inflation-adjusted ≈ flat), with big winners (yellow-poplar, sugar maple) and laggards (hickory; white oak down YoY but strong 5-yr trend; walnut dominant long-term).

• Capacity risk: 100+ sawmills gone in two years; if demand pops, supply could choke, pushing prices up fast.

• Trade shift: China historically bought ~40% of U.S. lumber/logs; tariffs drove processing to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China), altering log vs. lumber economics.

• Profit strategy for landowners: Manage for competition (natural pruning/straightness), use patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoid diameter-limit cuts, and time sales to species cycles.

• Operational realities: Best ROI when mills are within ~60–90 miles; steep terrain or helicopter logging crush margins.

• White oak future: Main challenge is regeneration, not overharvest, control shade-tolerant maple/beech, open canopy on the right aspects, and keep foresters involved.

Talk to Kraig Moore: https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/kraig-moore

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com