In this week's Frankly, Nate opens a new series called How to Think About the Future. He begins with some comments he's heard repeatedly on this platform: why cover nuclear, plastics, renewables, or climate when something else is the real issue? Nate observes that these questions come from people who have already settled on a single storyline about what's coming, and are filtering everything else through it. Our actual reality is much more complex and unknowable, and even the most well-informed perspectives may only be able to capture pieces of the bigger picture. Nate emphasizes that even his own base scenario – that the global economy is likely to hit a wall in the relatively-near future – should be held with humility.

Nate introduces the idea of "scenario thinking" as a practical strategy to reflect on and prepare for several versions of the future, keeping one engaged and grounded in what matters. He also names why this line of thinking is hard in practice – 1. our nervous systems want resolution, 2. our careers and identities are attached to particular futures, and 3. cultural incentives reward confident stories over honest uncertainty. The episode closes by introducing shortfall risk, which is the danger that something essential, like topsoil, social trust, grid stability, or the nuclear taboo drops below a threshold from which it cannot easily recover. This concept will act as connective tissue across the rest of the series, which is an attempt to expand perception instead of picking the right future, and to identify what is coupled, what is irreversible, and what kinds of responses stay robust across many possible worlds.

Where in your life have you quietly settled on a single story about the future? Which of the essentials you rely on would be hardest to rebuild if they fell below a threshold? And how might the decisions you make this week change if you held more than one plausible future in mind at the same time?

(Recorded April 11th, 2026)

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On the heels of Artemis II, our cultural obsession with space colonization continues, even as we face increasing global resource constraints and planetary health declines. Techno-optimists, including some of the wealthiest among us, dream of a future where we mine, travel to, and colonize other planets – all in the hopes of bypassing the problems we now face on Earth. But from the perspective of physics and ecology, how feasible is space colonization – and are these interplanetary ambitions blinding us to the miracle of the planetary spaceship we already inhabit?

In this episode, Nate welcomes back astrophysicist Tom Murphy and eco-interventionist DJ White, two longtime friends with deep roots in both space science and ecological reality, to examine the surging cultural fascination with space mining and off-world colonization. Drawing on decades of experience with NASA missions, lunar laser ranging, and biophysical research, Tom and DJ outline the economic impossibility of asteroid mining, the physiological brutality of long-duration spaceflight, and the absurdity underlying dreams of Mars colonization. Both guests also argue that space colonization has, at its core, become a convenient story that lets humanity off the hook for the damage being done here at home.

What if the real tragedy isn't that we can't reach the stars – it's that we've stopped paying attention to the planetary home we're already on? If the most brilliant minds drawn to space exploration redirected that energy toward the living systems collapsing around us right now, what might become possible? And what if we could recognize that the complexity, beauty, and intelligence we hope to discover elsewhere in the cosmos is, improbably and urgently, still here?

(Conversation recorded on February 24th, 2026)

About Tom Murphy:

Tom Murphy is a Professor Emeritus of the Department of Physics and the Department Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California San Diego. He retired in 2023 and moved to Washington State to focus more on the predicament of modernity and its ecological incompatibilities. He is the author of Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, creator of the Metastatic Modernity video series, and continues to explore long-term human success through his Do the Math blog.

About DJ White:

DJ White is a co-founder of Greenpeace International and founder of EarthTrust. He has played a leading role in protecting dolphins, whales, sea turtles, and countless other marine animals, including successfully stopping a national dolphin drive kill and breaking the deadlock in capping the Kuwait oil fires. Additionally, he helped end the world's largest and most destructive global fishery – pelagic driftnetting – and created the lab which first demonstrated self-awareness in the universe outside the great apes.

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Today's Frankly is the final installment in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Nate frames the entire arc of this series through the concept of the carbon pulse: a one-time inheritance of ancient stored sunlight that humanity is burning through in a few hundred years. He highlights how modern economies, now roughly a thousand times larger than five centuries ago, are built on the assumption that the energy abundance at the top of this curve is permanent, when in reality it is not. Nate traces how money functions as a claim on physical work, not a substitute for it, and how the financial scaffolding that made shale oil viable depends on cheap capital that may not last. He connects this directly to what he calls energy blindness: the absence of biophysical reality from mainstream economic and political analysis.

Nate also draws a direct line between the energy crisis and the ecological crisis, framing them as two faces of the same predicament. The carbon pulse created both the unfolding ecological damage from burning too many fossil fuels, and the depletion crisis from drawing them down too fast. He outlines how forests, wildlife, and food systems all face increasing risk from both climate disruption and human desperation, and how geopolitical alliances are fracturing along lines of energy access rather than ideology. The episode closes with Nate's framing of the Great Simplification not as collapse, but as a potential reorientation, as well as an invitation to consider what actually produces human wellbeing: connection, purpose, community, and service. These are satisfactions that predate the carbon pulse, and do not require a barrel of oil.

What does it mean to build a civilization on a one-time energy inheritance, and then plan as though it will last? How might individuals and societies begin to reorient around what actually matters, before external circumstances force the issue? And as the carbon pulse peaks, who do we want to be on the way down?

(Recorded March 31st, 2025)

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