Over the past two episodes we've explored the first two binding constraints shaping the AI Industrial Economy: high-bandwidth memory and delivered power. This week we move further down the supply chain. To the ground itself.

The AI revolution doesn't begin inside a data centre. It begins in copper mines, uranium deposits, rare earth refineries and the global supply chains that underpin every transformer, GPU, cable and power station.

In this episode we examine why critical materials may become the next major bottleneck in the AI Supercycle, and why markets may still be underpricing the scale of the challenge.

We also explore the latest developments shaping the investment landscape, including:

• Micron's record earnings and what they reveal about structural shortages
• Apple's price increases as supply constraints begin to reprice the value chain
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East and implications for energy markets
• The G7 Critical Minerals Resilience and Production Alliance
• Proposed US tariffs on refined copper
• China's export controls on critical materials
• The long development timelines that make mining fundamentally different from semiconductors or power generation
• Why copper, uranium, rare earths, gallium, germanium and tin all matter to the future of AI infrastructure

The episode concludes with my current base case for critical materials over the next three to five years and explains why memory, power and materials should be viewed as one interconnected system rather than three separate investment themes. The AI Supercycle isn't simply a software story. It's becoming one of the largest physical industrial build-outs in modern history.

Chapters

00:19 - AI Supercycle Overview

02:30 - The Underground Constraint

05:32 - Iran, Energy Markets & Macro Update

08:40 - The G7 Critical Minerals Alliance

10:18 - Copper Tariffs and Industrial Policy

13:04 - Mining Runs on Geological Time

15:08 - Why Copper Matters

18:07 - Uranium and the Nuclear Supply Chain

21:02 - The Wider Critical Materials Complex

23:52 - China's Strategic Leverage

25:47 - Base Case Outlook

28:48 - Connecting the Three Constraints

About The AI Supercycle

The AI Supercycle follows the capital flows, infrastructure investment and physical constraints shaping the AI Industrial Economy.

From semiconductors, hyperscale data centres and power grids to critical materials, orbital compute and embodied intelligence, each episode examines where capital is being deployed, where bottlenecks are emerging and what this means for investors, businesses and the global economy.

• (00:19) - AI Supercycle Overview
• (02:30) - Underground Constraint Begins
• (05:32) - Iran Shock and Market Moves
• (08:40) - G7 Mineral Alliance
• (10:18) - Copper Tariff Watch
• (13:04) - Mining Runs on Geological Time
• (15:08) - Copper Under Strain
• (18:07) - Uranium Supply Tightens
• (21:02) - Critical Materials Wideview
• (23:52) - China’s Control Leverage
• (25:47) - Base Case Outlook
• (28:48) - The Three Constraints