The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, the Dow +0.58% to 48,185.80 (now positive YTD), and the Nasdaq +0.83% to 22,822.42, marking the index’s seventh consecutive session of gains — its longest run since October.

Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah, boosting ceasefire credibility, though Iran’s new supreme leader signalled Hormuz will enter “a new stage” of management and US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad are set for Saturday.

WTI crude settled near $99.21 (+5.1%) and Brent near $97.17 (+2.6%) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with Saudi Arabia’s production capacity cut by 600,000 bpd from attacks on energy facilities — roughly one-tenth of normal Saudi exports.

February PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month to 3.0% year-on-year — above the Fed’s 2% target and pre-dating the oil shock — while Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualised growth, raising the prospect of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts.

Carlyle Group’s $7 billion private credit fund capped redemptions at 5% after investors sought to withdraw 15.7% of shares, as AI disruption fears and software sector stress continue to roil private credit markets and the broader $1.8 trillion industry.

ASX 200 futures are near flat at 9,002 (–1 point at 7:45am AEST); Atlassian fell 7.6% in New York and will weigh at the open, with China’s March CPI/PPI at 11:30am AEST and US CPI due tonight at 10:30pm AEST as key catalysts.