El Niño may begin as a patch of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, but its effects can be felt across the globe. In this episode of Sanity Check, David R. Legates explores one of the most powerful climate phenomena on Earth and explains why forecasters are closely watching the possibility of a particularly strong El Niño developing in the months ahead.

What exactly is El Niño? Why are scientists watching the Pacific Ocean so closely this year? And how can changing ocean temperatures near South America influence rainfall in California, droughts in Australia, Atlantic hurricanes, agricultural production, wildfire risk, and even food prices around the world?

Dr. Legates walks through the science behind the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), explains how El Niño differs from La Niña, and discusses what current forecasts may mean for weather patterns in the United States and beyond. Along the way, he offers a reminder that while climate models can provide valuable guidance, nature often retains a few surprises of its own.

Whether you've heard the term for years or are encountering it for the first time, this episode provides a clear and accessible introduction to one of the most influential drivers of global weather.

Show notes:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01921-6

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-super-el-nino-strongest-ever-ocean-pacific-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

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This episode of Sanity Check examines a question that sits at the heart of modern scientific culture: Can science remain ethical when divorced from a moral framework? Drawing from a standout presentation delivered at the recent Cornwall Alliance Spring Conference in Memphis, Daniel O’Malley argues that science can tell us what can be done, but not what should be done—and that without Christianity, science risks becoming untethered from truth, ethics, and human responsibility.

In this episode, David R. Legates reflects on his own experiences facing skepticism as a Christian scientist, from university audiences to media interviews, and explores the deeper assumption behind those encounters: that secularism is objective while Christianity is inherently biased. The discussion challenges that premise directly, arguing that every scientific enterprise is ultimately guided by some moral vision, whether acknowledged or not.

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For years, the most extreme climate scenarios shaped headlines, policy debates, and public fear—despite growing evidence that many of those projections were increasingly detached from real-world energy and emissions trends. Now, in a major shift ahead of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report, climate modelers are quietly abandoning some of their most dramatic assumptions.

In this episode of Sanity Check, David R. Legates breaks down the rise and fall of RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, the “worst-case” climate pathways that came to dominate public discourse, and explains why CMIP7 is moving in a different direction. From coal projections and emissions trends to media narratives and scientific self-correction, this episode explores what these changes mean for climate science, public policy, and the future of the climate debate.

https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/2627/2026/

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/rcp85-is-officially-dead

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-following

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51281986

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544217314597

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This episode is a bit different from our usual content. We are bringing you a lecture from our inaugural conference, "Heaven and Earth, the Struggle for Faith and Science in the Public Square." If you missed our conference, you're in luck, because we're bringing you a key lecture from our very own Vijay Jayaraj. He dismantles the "green" movement and demonstrates, with compelling evidence, how these protocols damage the developing world.

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Our work is entirely supported by donations from people like you. If you benefit from our work and would like to partner with us, please visit www.cornwallalliance.org/donate.

In this episode, E. Calvin Beisner takes on three enduring claims about capitalism and the environment: that it depletes resources, imposes unjust costs, and prioritizes the short term at the expense of the future. Drawing on economic theory, historical evidence, and real-world data, he challenges the assumption that growth inevitably leads to scarcity and argues instead that human ingenuity, price signals, and market coordination expand—not exhaust—what we consider “resources.”

The discussion also tackles the concept of externalities, questioning whether environmental harm is truly a market failure or more often a failure of governance and property rights enforcement. Finally, the episode explores how markets account for the future, pushing back on the idea that capitalism is inherently shortsighted.

At a moment when critiques of markets dominate environmental discourse, this episode offers a clear, systematic defense of capitalism as a framework not only compatible with environmental stewardship, but uniquely suited to sustain it.

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Our work is entirely supported by donations from people like you. If you benefit from our work and would like to partner with us, please visit www.cornwallalliance.org/donate.

The concept of “planetary boundaries” has become one of the most influential frameworks in modern environmental science—shaping global policy, corporate behavior, and public perception. But how solid is it, really?

In this episode of Sanity Check, Dr. David R. Legates examines the origins of the planetary boundaries model and walks through each of its ten proposed limits—from climate change and biodiversity loss to ocean chemistry and chemical pollution. Along the way, he raises critical questions about the scientific ambiguity behind so-called “tipping points,” the arbitrariness of defined thresholds, and the growing tendency to treat uncertain models as settled fact.

Are we truly approaching environmental collapse—or are we being guided by a framework that overstates risk and underestimates resilience?

This episode challenges one of the dominant narratives in environmental discourse and asks whether these “guardrails” are grounded in reality—or constructed to drive a predetermined conclusion.

Links:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a45124009/humanity-oversteps-planetary-boundaries/

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a70381572/aquatic-deoxygenation-planetary-boundaries-climate-crisis/

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Our work is entirely supported by donations from people like you. If you benefit from our work and would like to partner with us, please visit www.cornwallalliance.org/donate.

What happens when lawsuits quietly shape public policy—without a full trial, public scrutiny, or legislative debate? In this episode of Sanity Check, David R. Legates unpacks the controversial practice known as “sue-and-settle.”

What begins as a seemingly straightforward legal mechanism—citizens holding agencies accountable—can, in practice, become something far more complex. Through negotiated settlements between advocacy groups and federal agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency, binding regulations can emerge behind closed doors, often bypassing the traditional rulemaking process and limiting public input.

This episode walks through how sue-and-settle works, why it’s been used under laws like the Clean Air Act, and where the real controversy lies: accountability, transparency, and the balance of power in a democratic system. With millions in taxpayer-funded legal fees and far-reaching regulatory consequences at stake, critics argue this approach amounts to “regulation through litigation.”

Is sue-and-settle an efficient tool for enforcing the law—or a loophole that sidelines the public and reshapes policy without consent?

Tune in for a clear-eyed breakdown of one of the most debated—and least understood—mechanisms in modern environmental governance.

https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/trump-epa-ends-exorbitant-pay-outs

https://www.uschamber.com/regulations/sue-and-settle-regulating-behind-closed-doors

https://virginialawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Tyson_Book.pdf

https://www.heritage.org/environment/commentary/environmentalists-sue-settle-and-apologize-later

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Our work is entirely supported by donations from people like you. If you benefit from our work and would like to partner with us, please visit www.cornwallalliance.org/donate.

How reliable are the measurements behind climate claims? In this episode of Sanity Check, David R. Legates examines the data systems used to estimate Earth’s energy imbalance—particularly ocean temperature measurements from Argo floats. While widely treated as authoritative, these measurements rely on sparse sampling, interpolation, and assumptions that introduce significant uncertainty.

The result: the margin of error may exceed the signal itself, raising serious questions about the precision of current climate estimates and the confidence placed in them.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/argo/

https://zenodo.org/records/18936064

https://zenodo.org/records/18943232

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Our work is entirely supported by donations from people like you. If you benefit from our work and would like to partner with us, please visit www.cornwallalliance.org/donate.