Support the Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsxwneBx6apV1mQ7CbWKfXQ/join

Jiang Xueqin, known online as Professor Jiang, is an educator and the creator of the YouTube channel Predictive History. In this episode, Jiang and Robinson discuss the war in Iran, the limits of American power, and the economic and political pressures facing China. More particularly, they talk about Trump’s strategy in the Middle East, Israel, the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and Jiang’s predictions about the war’s consequences for the global economy. They also discuss Xi Jinping, Chinese corruption and debt, Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson’s views on China, and how to test Jiang’s approach to history and geopolitical forecasting.

Jiang’s YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PredictiveHistory

Jiang’s Substack: https://predictivehistory.substack.com/

OUTLINE
00:00 Introduction
05:53 Can the Iran War End America's Empire?
09:20 How America Lost Its Global Appeal
18:55 America's Three Pillars of Soft Power
29:54 Why Jiang Calls China Neoliberal
34:08 From Rural China to Yale and Back
41:05 Jiang's Critique of Wolff on China
51:28 China's Property Bubble and Debt Crisis
58:44 What Unites Trump, Xi, and Putin?
1:08:49 From Mao to Xi: China's Power Struggle
1:17:01 Zero-COVID and China's Economic Crisis
1:24:14 Taiwan, Uyghurs, and Chinese Rule
1:27:53 Criticizing China While Living There
1:32:57 Arendt, Kafka, and Authoritarianism
1:37:12 Why Jiang Calls Canada Authoritarian
1:43:06 How Jiang Predicted the Iran War
1:51:01 Israel and the Clean Break Memo
1:54:44 Trump's Coalition and the Iran War
1:57:18 Jiang's Original Iran War Forecast
2:02:01 Why Regime Change in Iran Is So Hard
2:07:41 Can Drones and Insurgents Beat Empires?
2:12:02 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
2:14:45 How the Houthis Disrupt Global Trade
2:18:59 Why Saudi Arabia Struggles in Yemen
2:25:36 Could the Iran War Trigger Collapse?
2:31:02 Would Elites Let the System Collapse?
2:36:55 Rat Utopia and Social Collapse
2:41:01 Canada: Breakup or US Annexation?
2:44:52 Could the Iran War Become a World War?
2:49:30 Jiang on Wolff, Hudson, and Collapse
2:53:27 Conspiracies and Testing Jiang's Ideas
3:02:49 The Iran War: What Can't Be Predicted?
3:07:49 What Would Prove Jiang Wrong?

Robinson’s Website: https://robinsonerhardt.com/

Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

Disclaimer: Robinson’s Podcast is a forum for open discussion. Guests’ views are their own and do not necessarily reflect Robinson's. Hosting a guest does not imply that he endorses the views or opinions they express.

Support the Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsxwneBx6apV1mQ7CbWKfXQ/join

Michael Hudson is an economist, financial historian, and distinguished research professor of economics at the University of Missouri–Kansas City. In this episode, Michael and Robinson discuss how financialization has changed the American economy, why working for a living has become harder, and the growing power of billionaires. More particularly, they talk about Trump and political influence, oil wars involving Iran and Russia, their consequences for fuel and food prices, and Hudson’s argument that China is using the industrial model America abandoned. They also discuss private equity, public banking, de-dollarization, AI, ancient debt jubilees, and the difference between creating wealth and collecting economic rent. Michael’s most recent published book is Temples of Enterprise (2024).

Michael’s Website: https://michael-hudson.com/

Temples of Enterprise: https://michael-hudson.com/2024/05/temples-of-enterprise/

OUTLINE

00:00 Highlights

00:39 Inherited Wealth and Earning a Living

07:03 Financialization, Bank Bailouts, and Private Equity

13:05 Industrial Capitalism, Banking, and Colonial Debt

25:39 Public Investment, Technology, and the Managerial Class

33:18 Reagan, Thatcher, and Privatization

46:35 Oil Wars, Fuel Shortages, and Food Prices

54:06 Debt Jubilees and the Rise of Ancient Oligarchies

1:00:42 Empire, Oil, and Economic Dependence

1:06:24 De-Dollarization, BRICS, and Public Money

1:13:08 Economic Rent, Value, and the Cost of Living

1:27:51 Neoliberalism and the Rejection of Classical Economics

1:39:19 Pension Funds and the Financialization of Retirement

1:45:06 China’s Industrialization and Public Banking

1:59:15 China’s Property Bubble and Evergrande

2:11:16 Billionaires and Wealth Concentration

2:15:22 Trump, Political Influence, and Regulatory Capture

2:26:59 AI, Intellectual Property, and Social Costs

2:30:58 Billionaires in China and Russia

2:36:21 Gulf Monarchies, Oil Wealth, and the United States

2:45:45 Democracy, Oligarchy, and US Foreign Policy

2:55:41 Alternatives to the Rentier Economy

3:01:16 Michael’s Outlook for the Next Few Years

Robinson’s Website: https://robinsonerhardt.com/

Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

Disclaimer: Robinson’s Podcast is a forum for open discussion. Guests’ views are their own and do not necessarily reflect Robinson's. Hosting a guest does not imply that he endorses the views or opinions they express.

Support the Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsxwneBx6apV1mQ7CbWKfXQ/join

Jessica Tarlov is a political strategist and co-host of The Five on Fox News and Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway. She holds a PhD in political science from the London School of Economics. In this episode, Jessica and Robinson discuss Trump’s political vulnerabilities, the Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 midterms, and how to argue across political divides. More particularly, they talk about immigration and ICE, healthcare costs, the debate over billionaire donors, and Jessica’s view that Trump’s corruption is catching up with him. They also discuss Democratic purity tests, criticism of Trump from the right, Jessica’s career on Fox News, and the cases for James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, Jon Ossoff, and Mary Peltola. Jessica’s latest book is I Disagree: Winning Arguments Without Losing Friends (Random House, 2026).

Jessica on Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/person/t/jessica-tarlov

Raging Moderates: https://podcasts.voxmedia.com/show/raging-moderates

I Disagree: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/803493/i-disagree-by-jessica-tarlov/

OUTLINE

00:00 Is Immigration Trump’s Greatest Strength?

03:34 Why Admitting You’re Wrong Makes You More Persuasive

06:04 What Do Democrats Stand For?

08:32 How to Disagree Without Losing Friends

10:10 Healthcare, Billionaires, and the Democrats’ Dilemma

12:25 Why Do Billionaires Back Democrats?

17:39 How Jessica Tarlov Found Her Voice on Fox News

26:19 Can Democrats Win Over Conservative Voters?

27:21 Should Voting Be Mandatory?

32:59 Why Talarico Wants to Turn Texas Purple

34:47 How to Win Progressives Without Passing Every Purity Test

39:02 Nick Fuentes, Trump’s Weakness, and the Limits of Debate

42:01 Why Jon Ossoff Is a Democrat to Watch

44:42 Why Jessica Tarlov Is Backing Mary Peltola

47:16 Bobby Pulido, Cait Conley, and the Democrats to Watch

54:42 The Case for El-Sayed and Talarico

Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

Disclaimer: Robinson’s Podcast is a forum for open discussion. Guests’ views are their own and do not necessarily reflect Robinson's. Hosting a guest does not imply that he endorses the views or opinions they express.