There’s something really interesting happening in Ukraine. The few and far between Russian victories seem to be making them weaker. Yes, you read that right. Russian victories are draining the life out of their soldiers, making it harder to win the battles that come next. On the other hand, Ukrainian victories have been swift, dramatic, and devastating - with each win seemingly making them stronger.

The big question is, why is it that Ukrainians gain momentum with every win, but Russia can’t seem to build on their victories? Well, it all comes down to asymmetric momentum. And there are 6 major reasons for this. 

Tune in to hear what these 6 reasons are and how the recent Ukrainian victories mark a critical juncture that will determine the course of the war.

00:00 Introduction

02:40 What is asymmetric momentum?

04:49 Ukrain’s positional warfare

06:55 Understanding Ukraine’s offensive and defensive strategies

08:16 Russia’s unintelligent retreat

10:37 How Russian political interests are affecting their progress

14:54 The poor discipline and lack of drive in Russian forces

16:42 Is the Russian army competent enough to win this war?

18:00 How Russia’s desire for a quick war is slowing their progress

20:40 Ukrainian motivation and their willingness to die for the right reasons

24:58 The impatient side of Russians uncovered

28:30 Many Russian conscripts will die due to lack of training and morale

29:36 The psychology behind Putin’s destructive Soviet-style leadership

32:04 Ukraine is playing the patient game

34:07 Summary

35:36 Parting thoughts 

Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.

Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.

Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?

I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:

• 1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine’s patience
• 2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine’s “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder
• 3. Russian Politics (don’t let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout
• 4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, "why are we here" vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight
• 5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans
• 6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable
• 7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with reality

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Mitchell Orenstein is a professor of Central and East European Politics in the Slavic department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard. His research focuses on the political economy and international affairs of Central and Eastern Europe.

This episode is the latest installment to the four-part series on Reconsidering Russia, where we try to dig into Russia's historical and geopolitical context to help you better understand some of their moves today and what's going on in their country today.

Tune in to hear Eric, Xander, and Professor Orenstein dive deep into Russia's real objective in Ukraine, Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership, why Russia really needs to diversify its economy, and so much more.

00:00 Introduction

01:35 Why Geopolitics is not about reforms or democracy

03:49 What does Russia really want?

05:49 Understanding Russia's national interests and foreign policy preferences

12:59 Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership

16:33 Comparing Russian perceptions to the American interpretation

20:10 What does the 'Near Abroad' mean?

20:54 The democratization of Russia's 'Near Abroad'

24:12 Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union

28:10 The strategic and fundamental importance of Ukraine

32:14 Russian interests in Finland

34:57 The Nature of Germany's relationship with Russia

39:01 Caucasus as a region of strategic importance to Russia

44:15 Chinese and Russian interests in South-East Asia

47:15 China-Russia relations: Eternal rivals or emerging alliance 

50:41 Russia's views on China's growth in power and influence 

52:38 Russia-Japan dispute over Kuril Islands 

54:50 Thoughts on Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy

58:35 Why Russia really needs to diversify its economy

01:01:58 What to expect from Russia in the next 5 to 10 years

01:05:18 Russia - a gas station with nuclear weapons

01:08:03 Parting thoughts 

Links and Resources:

Reconsidermedia.com

Mitchel's website - https://www.mitchellorenstein.com/

Mitchel's profile on the Foreign Affairs Magazine - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/mitchell-orenstein

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

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Time in Kyiv: 9am, Tues, Sep 13th.

Kharkiv Oblast is free.

Zelenksy announced about 6 weeks ago that a major counter-offensive in the South would take place. After a month of attacking bridges, rail depots, ammunition depots, C&C, bases, etc etc etc, the offensive started in earnest. 2 weeks in, they haven’t gotten a ton of territory back.

But, as all of us paying attention know, the Southern offensive may have been the greatest diversion in warfare since WWII itself. 

Over the last week, Ukraine launched the most dazzling counter-blitzkrieg I can think of. We’re going to go over all of that in its glorious detail here. 

There’s so, so, so much we don’t know. Lots of opsec, lots intentionally hidden from the public. What I can say with certainty is there will be many a movie made about this in Hollywood -- this is one of the great moments in military and geopolitical history, period. It is very, very likely the tide of the war has turned, and for good. David is now on top of Goliath, pummeling him.

Please excuse the sound. I wasn’t planning to record while on break here but I just couldn't help it. I don’t have my mic!

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