In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says.

We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government's £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London's Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest." Plus, we explore why "capital allocators" see yields differently than the rest of us.

In This Episode:

🌍 The Macro View: Trumponomics & Trade Wars

• How UK firms are reacting to US tariff threats and the rise of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument."

• Why 21% of UK SMEs now rate US tariffs as their #1 economic concern.

📈 The Market Data: Listings, Lags & Regional Winners

• Chris Watkin's Stats: A 10-year record for reductions and the return of the "listings glut."

• Zoopla Index: Why the North West is surging (+3.5%) while London stalls, and the "discipline" dominating Southern sellers.

• Scotland's Warning: Evidence of landlord consolidation and the 8% LBTT sting.

⚖️ Legislative Deep Dive: The Commonhold Revolution

• The "Feudal" End: The ban on new leasehold flats and the £30k fines enforcing it.

• The 50% Threshold: How a simple majority could drag an entire block into commonhold (and what happens to the dissenters).

• Ground Rent Caps: The £250 cap, the 40-year sunset clause, and the abolition of forfeiture.

🏗️ Sector Spotlight: Social Housing, Co-Living & BTR

• Social Housing: The truth about the £39bn fund and the "free money" 0.1% loans for providers.

• The S106 Emergency: Why the "clearing service" is really a distressed asset register.

• Co-Living Goes Mainstream: Why Earls Court is betting big on co-living and the shift to on-site affordable housing.

• Build-to-Rent Reality Check: The "delivery lag"—why completions are up 13% but starts have collapsed by 80% in London.

🧠 The Propenomix Philosophy

• Yields vs. Growth: Understanding the mindset difference between "BRR hustlers" and institutional "capital allocators."

Key Quotes:

"The 'London Premium' has become a 'London Penalty.' Construction costs in the capital are eye-watering, and investors are voting with their wallets."

"The government is trying to make commonhold robust... but the reliance on members voting for budgets fills me with dread."

Links:

Adam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/

Daily PropenomAIx Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7392088970785878016/

Propenomix YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence

Weekly Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/

Is your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio?

Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan, we analyze why the gap between the North and South is widening into a canyon and what the 84% collapse in London construction starts means for your exit strategy.

What we cover this week:

• Trumpomics & Global Yields: How US tariffs and Arctic cooperation are jerking the UK gilt and swap markets.

• The 2026 Property Snapshot: Real-time stats on the "glut" of New Year listings and the 22% gap between asking and sold prices.

• EPC C by 2030: A brutal look at the Warm Homes Plan. Is the £10,000 cap realistic, or will it force a mass landlord exodus?

• The Green Mortgage Myth: Why the 7.5 bps "green discount" is a rounding error, not an incentive.

• London's Construction Cliff Edge: Analyzing the "Molly Report"—why private construction has plummeted 84% and the "mid-market trap" for £1,200/sq. ft. apartments.

• Regional Winners: Why Northern Ireland, Scotland, and the Northwest are seeing 90%+ of homes increase in value while the South stagnates.

Timestamps:

• [ 00:00 ] – Intro: "Show me the incentive, I'll show you the outcome."

• [ 02:08 ] – Trumpomics, Greenland, and the impact on UK yields.

• [ 05:15 ] – UK Property Market Stats: The 2026 Week 2 breakdown.

• [ 11:25 ] – Macro Outlook: Unemployment, wage growth, and the 5.7% prediction.

• [ 33:30 ] – Deep Dive: The EPC "Warm Homes Plan" and the 2030 deadline.

• [ 48:40 ] – The Bank of England's take on Green Mortgages.

• [ 55:05 ] – The London Development Collapse: "Zombie sites" and the construction cliff.

• [ 01:03:20 ] – Zupla 2025 Analysis: The Great Regional Decoupling.

• [ 01:12:40 ] – Outro & Upcoming Manchester Workshop details.

Links & Resources:

• Next Workshop: Property Business Workshop (Manchester - Wed 22nd April). Book here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten

• Follow Adam on Socials: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/

• Subscribe to the Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/

Keywords: UK Property Market 2026, EPC Regulations 2030, Warm Homes Plan, Buy to Let Strategy, UK Inflation, Green Mortgages, London Property Crash, Propenomix, Adam Lawrence, Real Estate Investing UK.

The Media is Watching Greenland. I'm Watching the Bond Yields.

While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn't just populism; it's market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it.

Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the Resolution Foundation. But before you panic, look at the maths. We are staring down the barrel of 0.2% real household disposable income growth and a demographic cliff where deaths finally outnumber births. The era of cheap money and easy capital growth is over. 2026 is about survival, defensive yields, and cash flow.

In this week's Macroscope and Deep Dive, we strip away the "realistic optimism" marketing fluff to look at the cold, hard data:

• Trumponomics & Market Interference: Why the $200bn MBS purchase is a "crisis move" in non-crisis times, and why US yield compression is the only thing saving UK borrowers right now.

• The "Zombie" Economy: The Resolution Foundation calls it a "mild zombie apocalypse," but with insolvencies at 2011 highs and stagnant wages, the "reallocation" of labour looks a lot like pain for the private sector.

• Savills' 2026 Outlook: They're predicting a 3% base rate and a return to "normality." I break down why "normality" now means high regulation, zero supply, and why you shouldn't bank on capital growth to bail out a bad yield.

• The Density Delusion: The Policy Exchange wants "Gentle Density" and mansion blocks. A lovely idea, until it hits the reality of the 18-metre rule and the Building Safety Act.

The Takeaway: If your strategy relies on a V-shaped recovery or a return to the low-rate environment of 2021, you are fighting the maths. 2026 is a year for the brave, but only if the numbers stack up on day one.

The Next Step: If you want to professionalise your portfolio and stop relying on luck, join the workshop. This is where we do the work the industry ignores. Join here: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Challenge: Forward this episode to your broker or investment partner. Ask them if their 2026 projections account for a 0.2% growth in tenant disposable income. If they don't have an answer, you need to talk.

Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year's worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (especially on rents!).

We also tackle the return of "Trump-onomics" and the concept of "Net Wars" , alongside a deep dive into the UK's "Inclusive Wealth" accounts - proof that the economy hasn't fully recovered from 2020, even if GDP says otherwise.

Plus, we break down the latest Nationwide House Price Index , Chris Watkin's data on why volume - not price - is the new metric of health , and why a "flat" market might be your best buying opportunity this year.

In this episode:

• Trump-onomics: Venezuela, oil prices, and the "Putinization" of US foreign policy.

• Market Health: Why transaction volume is beating price inflation (feat. data from Chris Watkin).

• The "Real" Economy: Why ONS Inclusive Wealth data shows we are still burning the furniture to heat the house.

• Deep Dive (2026 Predictions): Adam vs. The AI.

• • House Prices: Why Adam predicts +1.5% while the consensus says higher.

  • Interest Rates: Why the Base Rate might stick at 3.5%.

  • Rents: The AI predicts a 6.5% surge, but Adam explains why affordability will cap it at 3.5%.

• Political Outlook: Will Starmer survive 2026? Plus, the looming "concrete vs. countryside" civil war.

Links:

• Join the Property Business Workshop (Jan 22): tinyurl.com/pbwnine

The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026.

From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game.

Key Topics Discussed:

• The BoE Rate Cut: Analyzing the split decision to cut to 3.75% and why the "Hawks" and "Doves" are divided.

• The Unemployment Trap: Unemployment breaks the 5% barrier (5.1%) while youth unemployment hits a staggering 16%.

• Trump 2.0 Trade Deals: How the UK is navigating "preferred partner" status and what 10% tariffs mean for manufacturing.

• Property Market Stats: Week 49 data shows sales are up, but fall-throughs remain sticky at 25.8%.

• Rental Market Warning: Why rental stock outside London is surging, and why investors must target 7-9% gross yields (North/Midlands) to survive high mortgage costs.

• The Private vs. Public Gap: Public sector pay is up 7.6%, while the private sector has shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs.

Strategic Takeaway: The era of passive capital growth is paused. For 2026, the game is about active management and cash flow. We discuss why tenant retention is now your primary risk mitigation strategy and why mortgage rates for limited companies will likely settle in the mid-5% range.

Buy your workshop tickets - Early Bird still available! www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators.

From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else.

In this episode, we cover:

• The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the market.

• Generational Divide: How the elderly now "Own England" (62% of outright owners are 65+), while working-age tenants remain captive.

• The Pricing Disconnect: Analyzing the massive 29.3% gap between seller expectations and actual sale prices.

• Construction in Crisis: The steepest downturn in 5.5 years (PMI 39.4) and what it means for housing supply.

• The Human Cost: Rising "structural unhappiness" and the fragility of the tenant base.

• Global Shocks: Trumponomics, tariffs, and the US/UK Economic Prosperity Deal.

Links & Resources: 🎟️ Join the Workshop: tinyurl.com/pbwnine #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Economics #UKHousing