In this episode, we’re joined by Jessie Yeung. Jessie teaches an undergraduate course called “Probabilities Everywhere,” which explores how probability shows up in everyday life—from elections and gambling to wartime decision-making and polling. Her work focuses on interdisciplinary research, statistics education, and social statistics, with a passion for making statistical thinking accessible and relevant.We talk about what polls actually measure, how to think clearly about uncertainty, and why understanding probability can transform how you see the world—from politics to poker.📖 Video Chapters0:00 – Intro0:28 – What Election Polls Actually Measure4:01 – Bias in Polling & Adjusting for It7:02 – Understanding Margin of Error & Confidence Intervals12:36 – How Sample Size Affects Accuracy14:46 – The “Magic Number” of 1,000 in Polls17:00 – Sample Size Calculations Explained20:03 – Why the House Always Wins: Casinos & the Law of Large Numbers23:00 – Lottery Economics: Expected Loss and Rare Profitable Cases25:30 – The Cash Windfall Lottery Hack by MIT Students30:18 – Sampling’s Hidden Superpower34:52 – Abraham Wald and the Bias in Wartime Data40:04 – Making Probability Relatable in Everyday Life41:39 – Why You Shouldn’t Trust Polls as Predictions42:48 – Rethinking Uncertainty: What Students Take Away43:34 – Lotteries, Casinos & the Myth of Getting Rich44:20 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Political scientist Dr. Lucan Ahmad Way—Distinguished Professor of Democracy at the University of Toronto and co-author of “Competitive Authoritarianism” and “Revolution and Dictatorship”—joins me to unpack how democracies erode from the inside. Way’s work on hybrid regimes has shaped the way scholars think about democratic backsliding around the world.

Books mentioned:

“Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War” (2010)

“Pluralism by Default: Weak Autocrats and the Rise of Competitive Politics” (2015)

“Revolution and Dictatorship: The Violent Origins of Durable Authoritarianism” (2022)

📖 Video Chapters

0:43 – Episode Intro – Introducing Dr. Lucan Way and His Two Landmark Books

1:46 – Intellectual Roots – Lucan Way’s Journey from California to Moscow

3:39 – Birth of “Competitive Authoritarianism” & The Deep-Dive Writing Process

5:53 – Can Political Science Be a Science?

6:24 – Competitive Authoritarianism Explained

7:42 – Democracies Backsliding: Hungary, India, Turkey & More

8:55 – Is the United States Already Competitive Authoritarian?

11:56 – The “Cost of Opposition” in a Tilted Playing Field

13:43 – Chilling Donors & Law-Firm Fears: Real-World Impacts

14:17 – Pushback: Can U.S. Institutions Still Halt Authoritarian Drift?

15:34 – Why a Second Trump Term Would Be Radically Different

17:15 – Second-Term Power: Loyalists & Scope for Abuse

17:42 – Ignoring Court Orders: A Brewing Constitutional Showdown

19:18 – Does Democracy Require More Than Two Parties?

20:50 – “Both Sides” Pushback: Cancel Culture vs State Retribution

22:24 – Lawfare & the Stormy Daniels Hush-Money Case

22:50 – Lawfare & the First “Mainstream” Targeting of Opposition

23:38 – False-Positive? Addressing the “You’re Seeing What You Want” Critique

24:58 – From Nixon to Now: Why Today’s University Crackdown Is Unprecedented

25:44 – The Authoritarian Blueprint: Purging the Civil Service

26:56 – Elon Musk vs. “Big Government”: Bureaucracy’s Role in Democracy

28:25 – Musk’s Loyalists Invade Federal Agencies

29:50 – Constitution Breached: Bureaucracy Under Siege

30:45 – Why Democracy Needs an Independent Civil Service

32:05 – Mass Firings & the “Startup Nation” Fallacy

33:30 – U.S. Wealth, Trump’s Unpopularity & Reasons for Hope

33:46 – Courts Ignored: An Openly Anti-Constitutional Administration

34:46 – Is the Crisis Transient? Optimism vs. “We’re Not Out of the Woods”

35:28 – Competitive Authoritarian Regimes Fluctuate: Historical Patterns

36:02 – What It Means for Canada: Defending Democracy & Fact-Based Media

37:18 – Film Pick: All the President’s Men (1976)

Enjoy the conversation, share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for more deep dives.

This week, I sit down with Professor Karen von Kunes from the University of Toronto for a fascinating deep dive into the Czech and Slovak New Wave. We explore the surreal, the satirical, and the socially charged films that emerged during one of the most creatively explosive—and politically turbulent—moments in cinema history.

From Closely Watched Trains to Daisies, from Forman’s under-the-table realism to Kundera’s polyphonic prose, this conversation uncovers the strange magic that still lingers in these films decades later. If you’ve ever wondered what makes Czech cinema so quietly radical, this episode is for you.

Five films to watch from the Czech and Slovak New Wave:

1. The Audition / Competition (Miloš Forman, 1963) – mock talent‑show that launched the Wave
2. Loves of a Blonde (Forman, 1965) – bittersweet factory‑town romance
3. Daisies (Věra Chytilová, 1966) – psychedelic prank that still feels avant‑garde
4. Closely Watched Trains (Jiří Menzel, 1966) – Oscar‑winning coming‑of‑age at a sleepy wartime station
5. The Firemen’s Ball (Forman, 1967) – small‑town raffle becomes a parable of socialist dysfunction

(Curious listeners can then graduate to The Joke (Jireš, 1969) and the 1996 Oscar‑winner Kolya.)

📖 Video Chapters:

0:00 - Welcome & Episode Overview

0:35 - 1960s Political Thaw in Czechoslovakia

2:00 - Prague Film Academy Sparks a Generation

4:40 - Slánský Trials & Cultural Opening

7:00 - Italian Neorealism Inspires Czech Filmmakers

12:00 - Defining the Czech New Wave Style

13:50 - “Daisies” vs “Closely Watched Trains” — One Movement?

14:36 - ‘Daisies’: Surrealist Rebellion Against 60s Consumerism

17:09 - Three Pillars of the Czech New Wave: Ordinary Lives, Humor & Sex

18:59 - Humor as a National Survival Strategy in Czech History

21:07 - Language, Subtitles & Why Jokes Get Lost in Translation

24:01 - Inside Closely Watched Trains: Sex, Satire & War’s Absurdity ​

29:05 - Underground Resistance in Closely Watched Trains

32:23 - What Defines a Czech New Wave Film?

33:55 - Miloš Forman’s Mock Audition (1963)

37:10 - Youth Culture, Motorcycles & Kinetic Camerawork

41:00 - Realism Rises After Socialist Fatigue

42:55 - Early Features: Black Peter and the Movement’s Peak ​

43:22 - Miloš Forman Goes Global: Black Peter & Early Awards

44:58 - Hallmarks of the Czech New Wave (Humor, Realism, Non‑Actors)

45:56 - The Firemen’s Ball — Subtle Satire & Political Easter Eggs

49:40 - “Everything Belongs to You”: Socialism, Theft & Daily Life

51:00 - Why Czech Audiences Flocked to These Films

55:56 - Beyond Realism: Films as a Wake‑Up Call for Social Change ​

57:44 - Cinema Sparks Youth Activism & the Road to Prague Spring

58:24 - A Midnight Encounter Inspires Loves of a Blonde

59:45 - Factory Girls, Small‑Town Dreams & Social Constraints

1:02:10 - Forman’s Signature POV: Under‑the‑Table Realism

1:04:55 - Heartbreak, Hope & Owning Your Future

1:06:08 - Milan Kundera’s Literary Imprint & The Joke ​

1:11:54 - Postcard Prank & Expulsion in Kundera’s The Joke

1:13:30 - Mining Flashbacks & the Last New Wave Picture

1:15:45 - Did the Movement Really Influence World Cinema?

1:17:30 - 1970s “Normalization”: Films Locked Away

1:20:25 - Forman’s Shadow and Today’s Czech Filmmakers

1:23:45 - Oscar‑Winning Kolya: Love Across Borders ​

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