The morning after US president Donald Trump reversed gears in Davos and (temporarily) dropped the US claim to Greenland, Medley Advisors held their weekly meeting to discuss policymaking and markets.

"For me, the surprise was just how little markets actually reacted to this," said Dan Schwarz, the head of macro markets. "The TACO thesis is firmly embedded in markets at this point". The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had been coasting at 15 before Trump combined a Greenland acquisition with punitive tariffs on eight European countries and jumped to 20 - "a level you typically see in stressed markets, not even distressed markets," he added. "In terms of intensity and on a scale of one to five, if the tariff incident was a five ... this is like a two, maybe a three".

The speakers, in order, are Tim Jones, Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, Dan Schwartz and Mario Lima.

After an eventful 2025, what does 2026 hold for geopolitics, economics, and monetary policy?

Medley Advisors' analysts gathered in the week before Christmas to give their best shot. Outlining their 2026 calls are:

• Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects and head of geopolitics.
• Ignacio Labaqui, Medley's Latin American politics analyst.
• Michael Redmond, Medley's "Fed-watcher" and US analyst.
• Brian Jackson, Medley's China and US trade analyst.
• Kenichi Nagura, Medley's "BOJ-watcher" and Japan analyst.
• Debalina Hazra, Medley's India analyst.
• Andrew Besuyen, Medley's "RBA/RBNZ watcher".
• Mario Lima, Medley's Brazil analyst.
• Tim Jones, host, "ECB watcher" and Europe analyst.

Heavy defeats for US Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia and a shrunken winning margin in Tennessee have triggered a spate of Congressional retirements and talk that Donald Trump's second presidency is already a "lame duck". This has prompted market speculation that he could take another populist turn - adding pressure on the Federal Reserve and posting out stimulus cheques.

Michael Redmond, Medley Advisors' US and Fed analyst is sceptical. "It just makes it really difficult to control the House when there's this level of unhappiness and it's such a thin margin already and you have some people who are looking for the exits," he says in this podcast. "So that probably means that Trump can't get through some of these ideas that he's talking about ... The Fed won't really need to be delivering more easing next year but, with all these elements politically and economically, the risks are definitely skewed to the downside for interest rates next year".

In this edited version of their weekly meeting, Medley analysts discuss this, lessons from Trump whisperers from Brazil, China's coming economic planning conference and a second wave of Chinese disinflation for Europe.

In order the speakers are Michael Redmond, Tim Jones, Pepijn Bergsen, Mario Lima, Brian Jackson and Fernando Posadas.