In this episode, Dave is joined by Joe Rabil of Rabil Stock Research—one of my favorite chart-focused voices and a fellow StockCharts contributor. Joe describes his process as “trend following on steroids,” and he explains why this environment demands discipline: the major indexes can look fine on the surface, but momentum has been fading and leadership has been shifting beneath the hood.

We dig into Joe’s use of ADX to judge trend strength, why a market can drift higher without real momentum confirmation, and how a consistent bottom-up routine (reviewing hundreds of charts) can give you an edge versus only watching indexes and sectors. Joe also highlights where he’s seeing emerging relative strength in early 2026—especially in materials, energy, healthcare, and select industrials—and how to think about risk, stops, and timeframes when conditions get choppy. Recorded 1/20/26.

You can check out Joe's book at https://amzn.to/4bNkFmp and learn more about his work at https://rabilstockresearch.com/.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Markets don’t just move on fundamentals—they move on themes, positioning, and policy. In this episode, I’m joined by Matt Tuttle, founder of Tuttle Capital Management, to break down his “HEAT” framework: Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry, and Themes—and how those four ideas shape his daily approach to risk and opportunity.

We discuss why Matt believes you should always be hedged, what real “edges” look like (and why many disappear once Wall Street markets them), how to structure trades for asymmetric payoffs, and how he’s thinking about 2026. Topics include the shift from AI creators to AI adopters, the importance of AI capex and the Fed as key pillars supporting the market, and how policy shocks can create both landmines and upside.

You can learn more about Matt's work at https://www.tuttlecap.com/ and check out his podcast here https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT
👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social
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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Jason Shapiro—featured in Unknown Market Wizards as “the contrarian”—joins me to unpack what actually creates longevity in trading: surviving drawdowns, learning from mistakes, and building a repeatable process built on risk-reward rather than prediction. We talk about how early wipeouts shaped his discipline, why “being right” is a trap, and why the best traders can lose more often than they win and still come out ahead.

Topics covered include: Jason’s three “blow-up” lessons and how they forged his process, why predicting markets is “worth zero” compared to managing risk, the casino/card-counting analogy for trading edges, how to define exits based on your entry thesis, the value of a trading journal for finding what works over time, and how positioning/participation—not price—can signal when a trade is truly crowded (including how he uses Commitment of Traders data).

Key takeaway: Sustainable trading isn’t about calling tops and bottoms—it’s about staying in the game. Define risk before you enter, only take trades where reward meaningfully outweighs risk, and let the market validate (or invalidate) your thesis quickly. Discipline plus a repeatable edge beats conviction every time.

You can learn more about Jason's work at https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT
👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social
👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior
👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior

The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.