• Convexity conundrum: diversifying assets didn’t work
• Commodities are not tariffs and cannot be altered at the stroke of a pen
• Tape bombs are having diminishing impact

• More about rotation than direction
• Bonds are still not protecting
• Implied correlation / VIX is at a record low

• Healthy correction in gold and silver
• Higher nominal rates globally
• Warsh’s impact on the MOVE and VIX

• Ready, Shoot, Aim Fed
• Misunderstanding of Oracle CDS
• Welcome back to the ‘90s

• Long Vol and long Delta
• Paid to be long Correlation
• Buy Everything!

• Risk-on sentiment is reinforced by accelerated global earnings
• Markets go up... volatility goes up
• The Magnificents’ P/E-to-expected growth is favorable — not true for the Everything Else
• Cross-asset correlations are already historically high — a short hop to “1”
• Gold is expected to move higher, driven by global populist monetary and fiscal stimulus

• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost

• US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illness
• Tipping point for US Dollar weakness
• Risk appetite still going strong!