Today's clip is from Episode 152 of the podcast, with Daniel Saunders.

In this conversation, Daniel Saunders explains how to incorporate risk aversion into Bayesian price optimization. The key insight is that uncertainty around expected profit is asymmetric across price points, low prices yield more predictable (if modest) returns, while high prices introduce much wider uncertainty. Rather than simply maximizing expected profit, you can pass profit through an exponential utility function that models diminishing returns, a well-established idea from economics.

This adds an adjustable risk aversion parameter to the optimization: as risk aversion increases, the model shifts toward more conservative price recommendations, trading off potentially large but uncertain gains for outcomes with tighter, more reliable distributions.

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• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302
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Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

• Support & get perks!

• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com

• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !

Chapters:

00:00 The Importance of Decision-Making in Data Science

06:41 From Philosophy to Bayesian Statistics

14:57 The Role of Soft Skills in Data Science

18:19 Understanding Decision Theory Workflows

22:43 Shifting Focus from Accuracy to Business Value

26:23 Leveraging PyTensor for Optimization

34:27 Applying Optimal Decision-Making in Industry

40:06 Understanding Utility Functions in Regulation

41:35 Introduction to Obeisance Decision Theory Workflow

42:33 Exploring Price Elasticity and Demand

45:54 Optimizing Profit through Bayesian Models

51:12 Risk Aversion and Utility Functions

57:18 Advanced Risk Management Techniques

01:01:08 Practical Applications of Bayesian Decision-Making

01:06:54 Future Directions in Bayesian Inference

01:10:16 The Quest for Better Inference Algorithms

01:15:01 Dinner with a Polymath: Herbert Simon

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Links from the show:

• Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026! https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/

• A Bayesian decision theory workflow
• Daniel's website, LinkedIn and GitHub
• LBS #124 State Space Models & Structural Time Series, with Jesse Grabowski
• LBS #123 BART & The Future of Bayesian Tools, with Osvaldo Martin
• LBS #74 Optimizing NUTS and Developing the ZeroSumNormal Distribution, with Adrian Seyboldt
• LBS #76 The Past, Present & Future of Stan, with Bob Carpenter

Today's clip is from Episode 151 of the podcast, with Jonas Arruda

In this conversation, Jonas Arruda explains how diffusion models generate data by learning to reverse a noise process. The idea is to start from a simple distribution like Gaussian noise and gradually remove noise until the target distribution emerges. This is done through a forward process that adds noise to clean parameters and a backward process that learns how to undo that corruption. A noise schedule controls how much noise is added or removed at each step, guiding the transformation from pure randomness back to meaningful structure.

Get the full discussion here

• Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats

• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302
• Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

• Support & get perks!

• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com

• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !

Chapters:
00:00 Exploring Generative AI and Scientific Modeling
10:27 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Applications
15:59 Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference
19:22 Live Coding Session: Implementing Baseflow for SBI
34:39 Analyzing Results and Diagnostics in Simulation-Based Inference
46:18 Hierarchical Models and Amortized Bayesian Inference
48:14 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Importance
49:14 Diving into Diffusion Models: Basics and Mechanisms
50:38 Forward and Backward Processes in Diffusion Models
53:03 Learning the Score: Training Diffusion Models
54:57 Inference with Diffusion Models: The Reverse Process
57:36 Exploring Variants: Flow Matching and Consistency Models
01:01:43 Benchmarking Different Models for Simulation-Based Inference
01:06:41 Hierarchical Models and Their Applications in Inference
01:14:25 Intervening in the Inference Process: Adding Constraints
01:25:35 Summary of Key Concepts and Future Directions

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Links from the show:

- Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!
- Jonas's Diffusion for SBI Tutorial & Review (Paper & Code)
- The BayesFlow Library
- Jonas on LinkedIn
- Jonas on GitHub
- Further reading for more mathematical details: Holderrieth & Erives
- 150 Fast Bayesian Deep Learning, with David Rügamer, Emanuel Sommer & Jakob Robnik
- 107 Amortized Bayesian Inference with Deep Neural Networks, with Marvin Schmitt

• Support & get perks!

• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com

• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !

Chapters:

00:00 Scaling Bayesian Neural Networks
04:26 Origin Stories of the Researchers
09:46 Research Themes in Bayesian Neural Networks
12:05 Making Bayesian Neural Networks Fast
16:19 Microcanonical Langevin Sampler Explained
22:57 Bottlenecks in Scaling Bayesian Neural Networks
29:09 Practical Tools for Bayesian Neural Networks
36:48 Trade-offs in Computational Efficiency and Posterior Fidelity
40:13 Exploring High Dimensional Gaussians
43:03 Practical Applications of Bayesian Deep Ensembles
45:20 Comparing Bayesian Neural Networks with Standard Approaches
50:03 Identifying Real-World Applications for Bayesian Methods
57:44 Future of Bayesian Deep Learning at Scale
01:05:56 The Evolution of Bayesian Inference Packages
01:10:39 Vision for the Future of Bayesian Statistics

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!

Links from the show:

David Rügamer:
* Website
* Google Scholar
* GitHub

Emanuel Sommer:
* Website
* GitHub
* Google Scholar

Jakob Robnik:
* Google Scholar
* GitHub
* Microcanonical Langevin paper
* LinkedIn

Today’s clip is from episode 149 of the podcast, with Alana Karen.

This conversation explores the evolving landscape of technology, particularly in Silicon Valley, focusing on the cultural shifts due to mass layoffs, the debate over remote work, and the impact of AI on job roles and priorities. The discussion highlights the importance of adapting to these changes and preparing for the future by developing complex skills that AI cannot easily replicate.

Get the full discussion here!

• Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats

• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302
• Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

• Support & get perks!

• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com

• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !

Chapters:

11:37 The Hard Tech Era
21:08 The Shift in Tech Work Culture
28:49 AI's Impact on Job Security and Work Dynamics
34:33 Adapting to AI: Skills for the Future
45:56 Understanding AI Models and Their Limitations
47:25 The Importance of Diversity in AI Development
54:34 Positioning Technical Talent for Job Security
57:58 Building Resilience in Uncertain Times
01:06:33 Recognizing Diverse Ambitions in Career Progression
01:12:51 The Role of Managers in Employee Retention
01:26:55 Solving Complex Problems with AI and Innovation

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Links from the show:

• Alana's latest book (Use code BAYESIAN for 10% off + a free interview preparation download PDF)
• Alana’s Substack
• Alana on Linkedin
• Alana on Instagram
• The Obstacle Is the Way – The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into Triumph
• Courage Is Calling – Fortune Favours the Brave

Today’s clip is from episode 148 of the podcast, with Scott Berry.

In this conversation, Alex and Scott discuss emphasizing the shift from frequentist to Bayesian approaches in clinical trials.

They highlight the limitations of traditional trial designs and the advantages of adaptive and platform trials, particularly in the context of COVID-19 treatment.

The discussion provides insights into the complexities of trial design and the innovative methodologies that are shaping the future of medical research.

Get the full discussion here!

• Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats

• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302

• Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !