Day 21/100

Ever notice how we obsess over solar parks, data centers, and EVs, but completely ignore what connects them all?

Today, I published a new deep dive: “The Wire Behind Everything: A Deep Dive Into India's Cable Sector”

This ₹92,000 crore market is the literal nervous system of India’s modernization. But investing here isn’t simple. As many investors fall for a classic valuation trap, mistaking copper driven price inflation for actual volume growth.

In this piece, I break down: Why cables aren’t just “copper wrapped in plastic”. The crucial difference between Polycab’s retail moat and KEI’s B2B playbook. Why EBITDA per kg and ROCE are the metrics that actually matter.

If you want to know where the smart money has been quietly building positions, give it a read. The podcast version is also live on Spotify and YouTube!

Let me know your thoughts below! 👇

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/the-wire-behind-everything-a-deep?r=5uwf28

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Day 20/100

Ever feel like you're always late to the next big stock market rally? By the time a sector is all over the news, the smart money has already made its move three to six months prior.

Today I break down the market clock, a 6 stage cycle that drives predictable sector rotation. The biggest takeaway is that the stock market actually leads the economy by 6 to 9 months. To find the next multibagger, you have to position yourself when the headlines are terrifying and the sector feels completely uninvestable.

As Howard Marks points out, it's not about predicting the future but it's about knowing exactly where we are in the cycle right now. The uncomfortable truth is that being early often feels exactly like being wrong.

If you want to stop chasing yesterday's winners and learn to spot early signals, this is a must read.

https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-clock-that-most-investors-cant?r=5uwf28&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

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#Investing#StockMarket#SectorRotation#Multibaggers#Finance

Day 19/100

Think you know Warren Buffett’s strategy? But I think most people walk away with the wrong lesson.

We’re told they are “value investors” who buy great businesses at fair prices. But the reality is far deeper. Buffett and Munger weren’t just investors but they were the 20th century’s most complete systems thinkers.

This deep dive explores the "Deceptive Architecture" behind Berkshire Hathaway:

• The Float: How $171B in interest free capital creates a structural arbitrage machine.

• Pricing Power: Why a "moat" is actually a dominant strategy Nash equilibrium that makes competition irrelevant.

• The Latticework: Using 80+ mental models from biology, physics, and psychology to map exploitable market weaknesses.

As Munger noted, "It’s not supposed to be easy". The real edge isn’t a spreadsheet but it’s the breadth of thinking. Stop looking only at P/E ratios and start viewing the market as a living economic organism.

Read the full breakdown here

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/buffett-and-munger-werent-value-investors?r=5uwf28

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#Investing #WarrenBuffett #CharlieMunger #SystemsThinking #Finance #MentalModels #ValueInvesting

Day 18/100

India's solar story still looks incredible from the outside. Capacity is rising, policy support is strong, and the long term opportunity is very real.

But in 2026, the more important question is no longer "Is solar the future?" But it's "Who actually makes money when overcapacity, tariff pressure, curtailment and execution risk all start showing up together?"

That's exactly what this piece tries to unpack. Not to be negative on the sector, but to separate narrative from business quality and highlight why the next phase may be less about headline growth and more about discipline, balance sheets, and storage-led economics.

If you follow Indian markets, energy, or capital cycles, I think you’ll find this worth reading. Would genuinely love to know which part of the value chain you think has the strongest economics from here.

https://spicapitalresearch.substack.com/p/indias-solar-boom-has-a-glut-problem?r=5uwf28

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Share it so it can reach more curious brains like yours.

[Solar Sector , Investing , Finance , CFA , Economy , Investment , Equity Research ]

Day 17/100

Today I wrote something that I honestly couldn't stop thinking about.

India imports nearly 88% of its crude oil. A massive chunk of that flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just a 33 km choke point that the US is now effectively blockading.

And most of the market conversation is still treating this like background noise.

But here's what I think is being missed, as this isn't just an oil price story. The second order effects on LPG supplies, fertilizers, the rupee, and inflation are real, and they're starting to show up. The question isn't whether India gets hurt. It's which sectors feel it first and how deep it goes.

I spent few days digging into the numbers and wrote a full breakdown on Substack - who's exposed, what the realistic scenarios look like, and why India's strategic reserve cushion isn't as comforting as it sounds.

Would love to hear what you think.

https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/indias-oil-trap-the-hormuz-blockade

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#India #MacroEconomics #OilMarkets #HormuzCrisis #IndianEconomy

Day 16/100

India's space race isn't just about rockets but it's about the data mapping our future.

Geospatial tech is becoming the "invisible operating system" for India's physical infrastructure. From the SVAMITVA scheme resolving 40 year land disputes in minutes,

This market is projected to reach around $12-15 billion by 2030, the momentum is real. But don't get caught in the hype. The real value lies in companies building "data gravity" through proprietary models and high recurring revenue - not just one off projects.

With the National Geospatial Policy providing a structural advantage to domestic firms, we are seeing a quiet reordering of power. Whether it is Reliance Industries Limited strategic bet on space situational awareness with Digantara or the rise of high-accuracy 3D digital twins, the sector is moving from "maps to moats"

Check out the full deep dive below to see how to actually value this sector! 👇

https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/indias-geospatial-sector-space-ambitions

[ Geospatial , Spacetech , Investing , IndiaGrowth , Infrastructure , EquityDecoded , thevaluationschool , soic , SpaceX , space , economy , investment , ISRO ]

A farmer walks into a shop and buys a 45 kg bag of urea for just ₹242. That price hasn't moved since 2018.

This year the government is spending about ₹1.71 lakh crore to keep it that way.

And the companies making that urea? They're listed on the stock exchange. They look dirt cheap on every screener. But somehow they always feel wrong when you add them to your portfolio.

Here's why. These aren't really normal private businesses. The government decides what they pay for gas, what they can charge the farmer, and how much subsidy they'll get back. Management has some room to operate, but they're basically playing inside a triangle drawn by policy.

So when you see a low P/E and think "bargain" stop and ask - Is this actually cheap or did the government just clear a huge pile of pending subsidy payments last quarter?

I just wrote a full breakdown on exactly this - the ratio traps that catch most investors, what really separates the good fertilizer plays from the bad ones, and the one big policy shift that almost nobody is pricing in right now.

https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/why-fertilizer-companies-are-not

Would love to know?? Do you own any fertilizer stocks, or are you staying away? Drop your thoughts. 👇

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[ Finance , Investing , Economy , Sector analysis ]

Day 14/100

Ever felt like you cracked the code on a hot IPO, only to see it tank 55% six months later? Meet Rahul. He followed the influencers, watched the grey market premium soar, and bought in on listing day. Now, he’s holding a heavy loss while promoters sit on their profits.The truth? IPOs aren't launched when companies are ready. They’re launched when the market is ready—meaning sentiment is euphoric enough for investors to pay 80x earnings without asking questions. It’s a game where the most informed (promoters) sell to the least informed (retail) at the peak of information asymmetry.In my latest deep dive, "The IPO Trap: Why the House Always Wins," I break down:

1. Why "Suddenly Profitable" companies are a red flag.

2. Why Cash Flow matters more than accounting profit.

3. Four essential questions to ask before you hit 'Apply'.

Don’t be the exit liquidity for insiders. Learn how to spot the trap.

Read the full article or listen on Spotify/YouTube!

https://open.substack.com/pub/spicapitalresearch/p/the-ipo-trap-why-the-house-always

#Investing #IPO #StockMarket #EquityDecoded #ValueInvesting