Global Sugar Market Weekly Summary

• China's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has been revised upward by 800,000 metric tons to 12,500,000 metric tons, a 6.8% increase in national output. Strong sugarcane performance in Guangxi and Yunnan is driving the improvement, with the southern campaign continuing to exceed expectations as the northern beet sugar campaign concludes successfully. The higher domestic output is reducing China's reliance on sugar imports and reinforcing self-sufficiency. Nonetheless, future import volumes and pricing strategies will remain sensitive to global crude oil price movements and supply decisions from major exporters, particularly Brazil.
• Thailand's sugar production holds steady at 10,500,000 metric tons, with domestic consumption recorded at 2,350,000 metric tons, predominantly in the industrial sector. Input and packaging costs have surged by 40%, though industrial buyers have been insulated from pass-through price increases in the interest of market stability. Retail price adjustments are scheduled for May 2026, which may affect household consumption patterns. The Gasahol E20 program also presents a potential redirection of sugarcane toward ethanol production, introducing further variability into sugar output and pricing.
• South Africa is pursuing a significant revitalization of its sugar sector, anchored by an R1.8 billion restoration of the Gledhow Mill. The investment aims to lift production, support local employment, and advance energy efficiency through sugarcane byproduct utilization and biofuel development. The industry continues to face headwinds from import competition and rising costs, particularly for refined sugar, and the long-term success of these initiatives will depend on supportive policy measures and consistent evaluation of their implementation.
• India is shifting strategic focus toward ethanol production from sugarcane as part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on imported liquefied petroleum gas and strengthen energy security. Despite robust current sugar production levels, increased ethanol blending targets could tighten domestic sugar availability and constrain export capacity. India's policy trajectory on this front will be a key variable for global sugar market dynamics in the months ahead.

Global Sugar Market Weekly Summary: April 5, 2026

• The global sugar market is on course to return to a surplus in the 2025/26 season, shaped by strong production growth in India, incremental gains in Brazil and Thailand, and an increasingly influential ethanol policy dynamic across major producing nations.
• India has posted a significant production increase, reaching approximately 27,120,000 metric tons through March 2026, a 9% rise year-on-year. The Indian Sugar Mills Association projects the season could peak at 29,300,000 metric tons, representing 12% growth over the prior year. A key driver of this higher sugar output is the downward revision in ethanol production estimates, from 5,000,000 to 3,400,000 metric tons, which redirected more cane toward sugar. The government has also approved exports of 2,000,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, adding meaningful volume to global trade flows. Delayed factory operations and ongoing shifts in ethanol policy remain variables to watch.
• In Brazil's Center South region, sugar production edged up 0.7% to 40,250,000 metric tons. However, rising crude oil prices are prompting mills to consider redirecting more cane toward ethanol, which could constrain future sugar output despite projections for a record 44,700,000 metric tons in the upcoming season. The balance between sugar and ethanol allocation will remain closely tied to energy market conditions.
• Thailand maintained steady performance, setting a production target of 10,250,000 metric tons for the season, a modest 2% year-on-year increase broadly in line with local expectations.
• At the global level, agencies including the USDA, Zarnikov, and Green Pool project a surplus ranging from 1,220,000 to 8,300,000 metric tons for 2025/26. This surplus is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, though disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz closure provide intermittent support. Price stability will likely depend on the interplay between expanded production capacity, particularly from Brazil, and national ethanol policy adjustments in the period ahead.

This episode highlights contrasting developments in the global sugar market.

• A major focus is China’s sugar beet planting in Baicheng County, Xinjiang, where large-scale mechanized operations are using precision agriculture techniques to improve efficiency and sustainability. The project covers 10,000 mu and is designed to reduce water use by 30 percent while targeting high yields. A nearby processing facility with annual capacity of 1 million tons adds further value by converting byproducts into livestock feed and organic fertilizer, reinforcing a more integrated regional supply chain.
• The episode notes that although China’s national sugar output is projected at 11.7 million tons, the Baicheng initiative represents only a small share of total production. Its significance lies less in scale and more in what it signals: reduced regional import dependence, greater cost efficiency, and a push toward modernized, contract-based production and processing systems.
• In India, the focus shifts to Maharashtra, where sugar mills are under severe financial pressure at the end of the crushing season. Of 208 mills, 159 have not fully paid farmers, with arrears reaching 39.68 billion rupees. This is happening even as the state has crushed 101.58 million tons of cane, showing that large production volumes have not translated into healthy mill finances. National sugar output remains robust at an expected 29.3 million tons, helped in part by reduced ethanol diversion, but mills continue to struggle with liquidity due to statutory cane pricing and limited flexibility in raw sugar selling prices.
• Overall, the episode presents a global sugar market shaped by very different regional realities. China is emphasizing modernization, resource efficiency, and integrated processing, while India is confronting structural financial strain within a high-output system.

This episode delivers a comprehensive overview of the shifting dynamics in the global sugar market.

• In Thailand, a government-imposed price cut is pushing sugarcane producers toward alternative crops, particularly cassava, which benefits from stronger prices and less import competition. Sugarcane prices are expected to fall by 22% in the 2025–26 season, prompting this shift. Despite the change, sugar output may initially rise by 6%, though a subsequent 7.5% drop is projected due to reduced cultivation.
• India's sugar production has surged 43% year over year, reaching a projected 31 million metric tons as ethanol diversion declines. The government has set an export quota of 1.5 million metric tons despite concerns of a global surplus. Favorable monsoon rains have further boosted crop yields.
• Brazil is on track to produce 45 million metric tons of sugar in the 2025–26 season, with an 8.7% increase in the Center South region attributed to better harvesting efficiency and favorable weather. A weakening Brazilian real continues to enhance the competitiveness of exports, adding pressure to global sugar prices.
• In the European Union, sugar beet cultivation is set to decline by nearly 10% in Germany and the UK, driven by high input costs and falling prices. This trend mirrors the previous season and may lead to factory closures if it persists.
• China anticipates increased sugar production, rising to 11.5 million metric tons due to expanded cultivation. Consumption is expected to hold steady at 15.8 million metric tons, with low global prices potentially increasing import volumes. The government remains vigilant on sugar syrup imports to stabilize domestic markets.
• Australia's sugar industry is grappling with its lowest price levels in five years. In response, the sector is calling for a pivot to biofuels and bioenergy, supported by proposed government initiatives such as capital grants, feasibility studies, and infrastructure investment.

This week’s episode covers key developments in the global sugar market.

• India reported a 43% increase in sugar production from October to November, reaching 4.11 million metric tons. This growth is attributed to improved yields and earlier mill operations. Forecasts for the 2025–26 season range from 31 to 34.9 million tons. Despite these gains, India reduced its sugar export quota from 2 million to 1.5 million tons. The Food Ministry is considering higher ethanol procurement prices, which could incentivize mills to shift focus from sugar to ethanol, impacting future output and export volumes.
• Brazil is on track for a record sugar output of 45 million metric tons. Early November data showed an 8.7% year-over-year increase, influenced by rising crude oil prices that make ethanol production more attractive. Robust crush volumes and sugar recovery rates support global supply growth, though this may suppress international prices.
• Thailand anticipates a modest 2% rise in output, totaling 10.3 million tons for the upcoming season. As the world’s third-largest producer, Thailand’s consistent growth continues to bolster global supply, potentially prolonging lower price periods.
• In the European Union, especially France, favorable weather conditions are expected to boost sugar beet harvests despite regulatory limits on pesticide use. The local growers’ association is optimistic about positive impacts on production.
• The United States is contributing to global supply pressures with revised upward production estimates, while ethanol mandates influence the use of sugarcane. In Pakistan, limited output growth is expected, but government stabilization policies play a key role in balancing market surpluses and shortages.
• Across all regions, the global sugar market remains shaped by an intricate mix of production trends, government policies, and energy market linkages. Shifting priorities between sugar and ethanol production are increasingly influencing output strategies and global pricing dynamics.

This week’s global sugar market report.

• Fiji’s sugar industry continues to face operational challenges due to persistent heavy rainfall, which has hindered activity at both the Labasa and Rarawai mills. In response, the Fiji Sugar Corporation has extended the crushing season at Labasa and is conducting operational trials at Rarawai following fire damage. The corporation is also working to curb cane burning to maintain productivity under difficult weather conditions.
• In Malaysia, MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad is preparing for favorable developments in 2026, anticipating a decline in raw sugar prices. The company is enhancing operational efficiency and targeting a 95 percent efficiency rate while managing exports conservatively. Despite improved performance, it continues to navigate pressures from weak global sugar prices and volatile currency and futures markets.
• India’s Sanjivani sugar factory is planning additional support measures for farmers, potentially expanding subsidies for harvesting and transport costs to a national level. These efforts aim to maintain a fair sugarcane price and protect farmers from predatory pricing, especially in Karnataka.
• Global sugar pricing remains influenced by complex factors. While India’s export restrictions and Brazil’s revised production numbers signal a bullish market, the International Sugar Organization’s projected global surplus offers a moderating counterpoint. India’s ethanol policies and Brazil’s strong output forecasts are pivotal in shaping short-term global price movements.
• In the Philippines, sugar production is expected to remain steady at 2.09 million metric tons despite pest challenges and varying outlooks from local and U.S. agencies. The expansion of sugarcane cultivation into former banana plantations may help offset potential yield losses.
• Finally, Brazil's sugar market dynamics reflect a nuanced picture: while a recent downward forecast for 2026–2027 temporarily boosted prices, the country’s current production remains robust, reaffirming its dominant position in global supply.

This episode provides a global overview of the sugar market.

• India's sugar production is forecasted to exceed expectations for the 2025–2026 season, with estimates ranging from 31 million to 35.3 million metric tons, an increase of up to 25 percent year over year. This growth is attributed to favorable monsoon conditions and a reduction in sugarcane diversion for ethanol, now down to 3.4 million metric tons. Despite a lowered export cap of 1.5 million metric tons, down from the initially expected 2 million, short-term sugar prices rallied before stabilizing due to broader global supply forecasts. India is also evaluating a potential increase in ethanol procurement prices, though no decision has been finalized.
• In Brazil, sugar production continues to expand. The government agency CONAB raised its forecast to 45 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 crop, reflecting a 16.4 percent year-over-year increase for October. Cumulative production in the center-south region has reached 38.1 million metric tons, applying downward pressure on global prices, which have also responded to currency volatility.
• Thailand's projected sugar output stands at 10.5 million metric tons, a 5 percent increase from the prior year. The country maintains consistent export levels, strengthening its role as a reliable supplier amid global market shifts, including policy changes in India.
• Overall, the global sugar market has transitioned from an anticipated deficit to a surplus, now projected at 1.63 million metric tons. The International Sugar Organization has raised the global production estimate to 181.8 million metric tons, up 3.2 percent from earlier projections. While price volatility persists, particularly in response to India’s domestic policy shifts, the broader market is adjusting to a phase of higher supply and moderated pricing.

This episode delivers a strategic overview of the global sugar market as of November 16, 2025.

• Brazil is leading global output growth, with Conab projecting a record 45 million metric tons of sugar for the season. This expansion is driven by favorable weather and improved cane processing. Mid-October projections from DataGrow for the 2026–2027 crop remain strong at 44 million metric tons, with Brazil’s Center-South regions showing the most significant gains.
• India’s sugar industry is also experiencing renewed momentum. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates production will rise to 31 million metric tons, marking an 18.8 percent increase from the previous season. Contributing factors include favorable monsoon conditions and a reduction in ethanol diversion. Even with potential export limitations, India may still allocate up to 4 million metric tons for international markets if current restrictions persist.
• Thailand is forecasted to grow sugar production by 5 percent, reaching 10.5 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 period. This boost is supported by better yields and strong export performance, facilitated by a structured trade environment that continues to back industry expansion.
• The collective output increase across these major producers is creating a substantial global surplus. Zarnikov has adjusted its forecast to reflect an 8.7 million metric ton surplus for the 2025–2026 season. Major trading hubs like New York and London have seen downward price trends, though periodic rebounds have occurred due to technical trading factors and minor export constraints.