Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam's coffee production is poised to significantly influence the global coffee market, with projections for the 2025-26 cycle anticipating a robust 30,800,000 bags, chiefly composed of Robusta beans. This estimate accounts for approximately 17.2% of global production, underscoring Vietnam's critical role in the coffee industry. The expected increase to 30,800,000 bags denotes a 2,300,000 bag surge, paving the way for a rise in exports to 24,600,000 bags and reinforcing Vietnam's standing as a leading global supplier. However, the sector faces challenges due to severe hydrological deficits impacting early-stage cherry retention, thereby threatening yield objectives. Additionally, producers are withholding stock due to low domestic farm gate prices, likely affecting short-term supply in international markets.
• El Salvador's 2026-27 market cycle forecasts a contraction in green coffee production by 7.5% to 542,000 bags, attributed mainly to long-standing structural challenges rather than immediate market forces. Export volumes, however, are projected to increase slightly to 543,000 bags, indicating a strategic release from stored reserves in response to firm global prices. Despite efforts and financial support to revitalize the sector, issues such as aging plantations and limited access to financing persist. While these internal challenges pose significant risks for El Salvador, their impact on global coffee trade remains minimal given the country's modest production footprint.
• Brazil's outlook remains strong, with the 2026-27 harvest estimated between 75.3 and 75.9 million bags propelled by favorable conditions and robust Arabica and Robusta outputs. This substantial volume cements Brazil's market dominance, although logistical bottlenecks at major ports and rising mechanized harvesting costs present notable challenges. Issues related to forced labor and supply chain transparency pose reputational risks, potentially affecting trade relations amid increased scrutiny over ethical sourcing practices.
• Guatemala's coffee production for the 2026-27 cycle is projected to slightly increase to 3,260,000 bags, supported by expanded harvest areas and ongoing plantation renovations. Arabica coffee remains predominant, representing 96% of production. Despite growth, Guatemala contends with rising input costs and pest challenges that could impact yields. The country maintains a niche yet important presence in a market heavily influenced by larger producers, supplying strictly hard bean arabica.