Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary

• West Africa's two dominant cocoa producers, Ghana and Ivory Coast, are grappling with deepening structural and financial pressures that threaten to constrain global supply through the 2025/26 season and beyond.
• In Ghana, farmers are facing payment delays of up to six months from licensed buying companies, leaving them without the working capital needed for basic operations such as harvesting and transport. Some farmers are reportedly withholding beans until payment is assured, raising the risk of near-term supply disruptions. While the Ghana Cocoa Board has indicated that funds have been allocated to clear outstanding arrears, inconsistencies in how those funds move through the supply chain have undermined confidence. Compounding this, official farm gate prices were cut by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, squeezing producer margins and potentially discouraging future cultivation.
• Ivory Coast faces similar headwinds. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to fall by 10.8%, from 1.85 million metric tons to approximately 1.65 million metric tons. A 57% reduction in farmer pay, introduced at the March mid-crop, has significantly curtailed farmers' ability to invest in crop maintenance, with downstream implications for future yields. Despite an 18.9% year-on-year increase in cocoa arrivals at ports by June 2026, medium-term risks remain elevated, particularly given the added threat of El Nino-related weather disruption.
• Nigeria adds further concern to the regional picture, with production forecast to decline 11% to 305,000 metric tons. Falling price incentives and rising input costs are the primary drivers, and April 2026 export volumes dropped 20% compared to the same period last year, signalling weakening external demand alongside domestic production difficulties.
• On the policy front, Ghana and Ivory Coast are advancing efforts to harmonise cocoa pricing and marketing strategies through a regional coordination initiative, synchronising farm gate pricing and crop calendars to reduce internal competition and support farmer incomes. However, the sharp farm gate price reductions in Ivory Coast have already triggered disruption, including road blockades by cooperatives unable to move unsold inventory due to payment arrears. The initiative holds potential to strengthen the region's collective market influence, but its credibility depends on more consistent and timely payments reaching producers.