Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Ivory Coast, severe rains and strong winds damaged young flower buds and cocoa trees, raising concerns about future yields. Despite these weather challenges, cocoa port arrivals remained strong, reaching 1.69 million metric tons by early June, up 3% from the previous year. Government forecasts continue to point toward a sizeable crop, with deliveries expected to reach 2.2 million metric tons. However, a 57% reduction in the mid-crop farmgate price has raised concerns about its potential impact on farmer incomes and future production incentives.
• Ghana also reduced official farmgate prices for the 2025-26 season by approximately 30%. While the country remains a key contributor to global cocoa supply, lower producer prices could place additional pressure on farmer profitability and potentially discourage future production.
• Indonesia is pursuing long-term growth through an ambitious agricultural revitalization program that includes distributing roughly 280 million cocoa and coconut seedlings. The initiative aims to expand plantation area significantly, although meaningful production gains are expected to take several years because of cocoa's lengthy maturation cycle.
• Nigeria faces a more challenging outlook, with cocoa production projected to decline by 11% year over year and exports falling 20% through April. Lower price incentives and rising production costs continue to weigh on the sector, creating obstacles for growers and exporters.
• At the global level, market participants are reassessing supply expectations as the possibility of El Nino introduces new weather-related risks for major producing regions, particularly in West Africa. At the same time, growing speculative activity and rising inventory levels suggest improved physical availability, contributing to downward pressure on prices.