Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast is navigating heightened volatility in ICE cocoa futures, with rising certified warehouse stocks and declining grinding volumes in major markets pointing toward a near-term surplus. The government has forecast a 10.8% decline in production for the 2025/26 season, bringing output to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons. Looking ahead, lower farm gate prices risk discouraging investment in crop maintenance, while the potential emergence of El Nino conditions could introduce further supply-side disruption through prolonged dry spells.
• Ghana faces a structurally similar set of pressures, with falling farm gate prices eroding farmers' capacity to fund essential agronomic inputs. The Ghana Cocoa Board has imposed substantial penalties on smuggling activity in an effort to protect sector revenues, but the combination of weak price incentives and adverse weather risks keeps the medium-term production outlook uncertain.
• Indonesia is experiencing a pronounced downturn in cocoa derivative pricing, with butter, powder, and liquor all under pressure. This challenges the country's position as a key supplier in the Asian market and may reflect a combination of subdued regional demand and internal structural inefficiencies, with implications for broader intra-regional trade flows.
• Nigeria's production outlook remains under strain, with anticipated yield declines driven by falling farmer incomes at reduced price levels. Compounding this are logistical disruptions from smuggling activity and ongoing regulatory changes, leaving the sector facing considerable near-term headwinds.