Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast has revised its 2025/26 delivery estimate upward to 2.2 million metric tons, a sharp recovery from earlier forecasts of 1.65 million metric tons, driven by improved weather conditions. Port arrivals reached 1.64 million metric tons by 24 May 2026, up 2.5% year on year. However, a 57% reduction in farm gate prices for mid-crop poses a material risk to future production quality and volume by discouraging adequate crop management.
• Ghana faces a projected 30% decline in farm gate prices for the 2025/26 season, which could deter farmers from making necessary investments in crop care. The government is seeking to raise $1 billion through domestic bonds to finance upcoming procurement, signaling institutional commitment to maintaining purchase volumes despite compressed international prices. The downstream impact on production quality and output remains a key concern.
• Nigeria continues to contract, with cocoa exports down 35% year on year as of March. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts a further 11% production decline for 2025/26, placing output at approximately 305,000 metric tons. The trajectory reflects broader West African pressures combining climatic stress and deteriorating farm economics.
• Globally, demand signals are mixed. European grinds fell 7.8% and North American grinds declined 3.8%, while Asian grinds rose 5.2%, indicating a regional rebalancing of processing activity. A growing trend among food manufacturers toward cocoa-free chocolate alternatives introduces a longer-term structural demand risk. El Nino concerns persist, with below-average cherelle formation flagged as a potential yield constraint for the 2026/27 harvest season.